Football Tomorrow: How Prices Move Before Kick-off

The home side’s win chance moved by an average of 2.4 percentage points between Pinnacle’s earlier price and its closing price, in 29,348 matches across 18 leagues. In 30.9% of matches the home side’s chance moved by three points or more, and the movement mattered: the closing price was the better forecast.

Today’s tips

Asian Handicap Predictions For Today Both Teams To Score Predictions For Today Yellow Cards Today
Half-Time/Full-Time Today Heavy Favourites Of The Day
Celtic, Rangers and the Rest of Scottish Football Football Prediction Tips For Today

Gt1

CSD Municipal
Cobán Imperial

424413
X1–1
1 – 1
2.35
25°
3/1

2/5
3/1
21/4
no
no
no

–

–
–
–
3rd
10th

CSD Municipal are undefeated in their last 14 home matches in the Liga Nacional.


Ni1

San Marcos
UNAN Managua

283933
X1–1
1 – 1
1.50
31°
12/5

7/4
12/5
23/20
no
no
no

–

–
–
–
8th
5th

UNAN Managua have seen under 2.5 goals in each of their last 3 Primera Division matches.


Co1

Jaguares de Córdoba
Once Caldas

263440
21–2
1 – 2
2.73
30°
19/20

61/20
9/4
19/20
no
no
down

–

–
–
–
16th
5th

Jaguares de Córdoba have lost their last 3 Primera A matches.


Ar1

Argentinos Juniors
Racing Club

473023
11–0
1 – 0
1.86
11°
11/10

11/10
19/10
33/10
no
no
no

–

–
–
–
3rd
8th

Argentinos Juniors have won their last 3 home matches against Racing Club in Liga Profesional.


Hn1

CD Motagua
Estrella Roja

453124
11–0
1 – 0
1.56
28°
3/10

3/10
17/4
13/2
down
no
up

–

–
–
–
4th
9th

CD Motagua are undefeated at half-time in their last 12 Liga Nacional matches.


Pa1

Sporting SM FC
Alianza FC (PAN)

193843
20–1
0 – 1
2.35
23°
3/5

4/1
5/2
3/5
no
no
no

–

–
–
–
6th
2nd

Alianza FC have lost their last 3 away matches against Sporting SM FC in the Football League.


Bo1

Oriente Petrolero
Univ de Vinto

543214
12–0
2 – 0
2.40
29°
7/10

7/10
11/4
16/5
no
no
no

–

–
–
–
9th
15th

Univ de Vinto have lost their last 3 away matches in the División Profesional.


Sv1

CD FAS
Atlético Balboa

57349
13–1
3 – 1
3.78
32°
3/10

3/10
15/4
17/2
no
no
no

–

–
–
–
3rd
10th

CD FAS are undefeated in 27 of their last 30 Primera Division matches.


LC

Philadelphia Union
Club Necaxa

373924
X2–2
2 – 2
3.16
29°
11/4

7/10
11/4
29/10
no
no
no

–

–
–
–
14th
14th

Club Necaxa’s last 3 Leagues Cup matches have all featured over 2.5 goals.


LC

Cruz Azul
New York City FC

264529
X2–2
2 – 2
3.24
33°
11/5

5/4
11/5
17/10
no
no
no

–

–
–
–
5th
7th


Cr1

CS Herediano
LD Alajuelense

243937
X1–1
1 – 1
2.40
24°
21/10

5/4
21/10
7/4
no
no
no

–

–
–
–
6th
4th

CS Herediano remain undefeated in their last 6 home matches in the Primera División.


Cl1

Univ de Chile
Palestino

403327
12–1
2 – 1
2.55
9°
13/20

13/20
11/4
4/1
no
no
no

–

–
–
–
3rd
4th

Univ de Chile have scored at least two goals in each of their last 5 Primera Division matches.


Ec1

Guayaquil City
CS Emelec

353926
X1–1
1 – 1
2.30
34°
2/1

7/4
2/1
3/2
no
no
no

–

–
–
–
11th
12th

CS Emelec are undefeated in 23 of their last 27 Serie A matches against Guayaquil City.


OFC

AS Vénus
Tiga Sport

383032
11–0
1 – 0
1.78
25°
–

–
–
–


2nd
4th


Gt2

CSD Sacachispas
Deportivo Mictlán

332245
20–1
0 – 1
2.00
33°
11/4

17/20
21/10
11/4
no
no
no

–

–
–
–
2nd
3rd

Deportivo Mictlán are undefeated in their last 8 matches against CSD Sacachispas in the Primera Division.





LC

Nashville SC
Atlético San Luis

552322
13–0
3 – 0
3.01
33°
3/5

3/5
3/1
7/2
no
no
no

–

–
–
–
15th
10th

Atlético San Luis have scored at least two goals in each of their last 3 away Leagues Cup matches.


LC

Chicago Fire
Santos Laguna

591922
13–0
3 – 0
2.73
26°
9/20

9/20
33/10
9/2
no
no
no

–

–
–
–
6th
12th

Santos Laguna have lost 3 matches in a row in the Leagues Cup.


Ni1

Matagalpa FC
Managua FC

211267
21–3
1 – 3
3.45
3/5

7/2
11/4
3/5
no
no
no

–

–
–
–
10th
4th

Matagalpa FC’s last 5 home matches against Managua FC in Primera Division have all featured over 2.5 goals.


Gt2

Huehuetecos
Cotzumalguapa

323730
X1–1
1 – 1
1.34
14°
3/1

2/5
3/1
21/4
no
no
no

–

–
–
–
4th
2nd

Cotzumalguapa have failed to win in 20 of their last 22 away matches in the Primera Division.


LC

Austin FC
Puebla FC

213049
21–2
1 – 2
2.78
36°
29/10

3/4
27/10
29/10
no
no
no

–

–
–
–
8th
16th


Co1

América de Cali
Atlético Nacional

412237
12–1
2 – 1
3.01
16°
5/4

5/4
11/5
11/5
no
no
no

–

–
–
–
4th
1st

América de Cali are undefeated in 24 of their last 25 Primera A home matches.


Hn1

Atlético Independiente
Atlético Choloma

423226
12–0
2 – 0
1.63
17°
17/20

17/20
12/5
9/4
no
no
no

–

–
–
–
10th
11th

Atlético Choloma have failed to win in 17 of their last 20 away Liga Nacional matches.


LC

San Diego
Club Tijuana

291754
21–2
1 – 2
3.13
26°
33/10

3/5
61/20
33/10
no
no
no

–

–
–
–
16th
11th

Club Tijuana have seen over 2.5 goals in each of their last 3 away Leagues Cup matches.


LC

Club América
Portland Timbers

423721
13–1
3 – 1
2.74
28°
11/10

11/10
12/5
2/1
no
no
no

–

–
–
–
4th
5th

Portland Timbers have won the first half in each of their last 3 Leagues Cup matches.


OFC

Central Coast
Auckland City

233938
X2–2
2 – 2
3.03
25°
–

–
–
–


3rd
1st


Ua1

Polissya Zhy
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv

244234
X1–1
1 – 1
1.89
27°
9/4

19/20
9/4
12/5
no
no
no

–

–
–
–
5th
6th

Polissya Zhy are unbeaten at half time in all of their last 16 Premier League matches.





Am2

Andranik
Shirak-2

74188
13–0
3 – 0
3.70
13°
–

–
–
–


2nd
11th

Andranik have won each of their last 3 First League matches by at least 3 goals.


Am2

Mika Yerevan
Pyunik-2

192952
20–1
0 – 1
2.47
21°
–

–
–
–


4th
5th

Pyunik-2 have kept three consecutive clean sheets in all three First League matches.


By2

Gomel II
Shakhtyor Soligorsk

224335
X1–1
1 – 1
2.13
27°
–

–
–
–


15th
7th

Gomel II have lost their last 3 matches in a row in the Pershaya Liga.


By2

FK Minsk-2
Ostrovets FC

343630
X1–1
1 – 1
2.40
24°
–

–
–
–


11th
14th

Ostrovets FC have drawn at halftime in five consecutive away matches in the Pershaya Liga.


Bg2

PFK Nesebar
Dobrudzha

152362
20–1
0 – 1
1.15
23°
–

–
–
–


17th
5th

Dobrudzha are undefeated in 7 of their last 8 Vtora Liga matches against PFK Nesebar.


Ua1

Karpaty Lviv
LNZ Cherkasy

234829
X0–0
0 – 0
2.10
29°
37/20

17/10
37/20
29/20
no
no
no

–

–
–
–
2nd
9th

LNZ Cherkasy have seen under 2.5 goals in each of their last 5 Premier League away matches.


By2

FK Orsha
FC Molodechno

262450
21–2
1 – 2
2.61
23°
–

–
–
–


12th
9th

FC Molodechno have kept a clean sheet in each of their last 3 matches against FK Orsha in the Pershaya Liga.


By2

FK Volna Pinsk
Uni Minsk

342640
21–2
1 – 2
3.33
28°
–

–
–
–


6th
13th

FK Volna Pinsk have scored at least two goals in each of their last 4 Pershaya Liga home matches.


By2

FK Smorgon
BATE II

394714
X1–1
1 – 1
2.10
23°
–

–
–
–


16th
17th

BATE II have lost their last 3 Pershaya Liga away matches by at least a 2-goal margin.


Sk2

MŠK Považská Bystrica
Zlate Moravce

194437
X2–2
2 – 2
3.49
30°
12/5

23/20
12/5
37/20
no
no
no

–

–
–
–
8th
6th

MŠK Považská Bystrica remain undefeated in 6 of their last 7 2. Liga matches.


Am2

Urartu-2
Noah II

444016
12–1
2 – 1
2.75
32°
–

–
–
–


13th
10th

Urartu-2 are undefeated in their last 6 First League matches against Noah II.


Ro1

FC Botosani
Corvinul Hunedoara

343729
X1–1
1 – 1
1.00
29°
21/10

11/10
21/10
21/10
no
no
no

–

–
–
–
14th
9th

FC Botosani have seen under 2.5 goals in each of their last 3 home Divizia A matches.


Lt1

Transinvest
Panevezys

513514
11–0
1 – 0
2.33
23°
3/5

3/5
27/10
33/10
no
no
no

–

–
–
–
2nd
8th

Panevezys have lost both at half time and full time in each of their last 5 A Lyga away matches.


Bg1

Botev Vratsa
Slavia Sofia

334819
X0–0
0 – 0
1.94
34°
9/4

19/20
9/4
3/1
no
no
no

–

–
–
–
11th
9th

Botev Vratsa are undefeated in their last 6 home Parva Liga matches.


Si1

ND Mura
NK Radomlje

463321
12–1
2 – 1
2.61
36°
17/20

17/20
13/5
12/5
no
no
no

–

–
–
–
7th
10th

NK Radomlje’s last 5 Prva Liga away matches have all featured over 2.5 goals.


Am1

Alashkert
BKMA Yerevan

484012
13–0
3 – 0
2.68
33°
–

–
–
–


3rd
7th

Alashkert have kept 3 clean sheets in a row in all Premier League matches.

More

 

Weekend tips

Weekend Over/Under 2.5 Weekend HT/FT Weekend Double Chance
Weekend Asian Handicap Weekend Both Teams To Score Weekend 1X2
Weekend Goalscorer Tips Weekend Yellow Card Tips Weekend Corner Tips

How far the prices move

Change in the home side’s win chance, opening to closing Matches Home side won Opening price implied Closing price implied
Up 3 points or more 4,688 51.1% 45.2% 50.2%
Up 1 to 3 points 5,888 45.4% 44.6% 46.5%
Within 1 point 8,279 43.1% 42.1% 42.1%
Down 1 to 3 points 6,126 39.1% 41.5% 39.6%
Down 3 points or more 4,367 39.2% 44.3% 39.5%

When the home side’s chance rose by three points or more, home teams won 51.1% of the time. The opening price had put the figure at 45.2% and the closing price at 50.2%, almost exactly the outcome. When it fell by three or more, they won 39.2%, against 44.3% at opening and 39.5% at close.

So the price moves weren’t noise. They carried information, and by kick-off the closing price had absorbed nearly all of it. In 28.2% of matches the home chance moved less than a point, and those games were where opening and closing were the same forecast.

Which price is more accurate

Two standard scoring rules both rate the closing price a little higher. The Brier score, where lower is better, was 0.5915 for the closing price and 0.5938 for the opening one. The log loss was 0.9908 against 0.9943. The differences are small because most prices barely move, but they run the same way in both measures.

Favourites show the same thing. Among teams that opened as favourites rated 60% or better, those whose chance shortened by two points or more won 76.2% of their matches (1,511 of them), and those that drifted by two points or more won 66.8% (1,169).

What this means for tomorrow’s predictions

A prediction made a day ahead, from team form and fixture context, is working from an earlier view of the match. Anything that changes by kick-off, such as confirmed line-ups, injuries and late money, is likely to show up in the closing price, which on these numbers is the better guide to the result.

The day-ahead view works best as a first sketch. Where a tip from the table disagrees sharply with a price that has since moved, the closing price has been the better forecast on average.

Only people 18 or older should bet, and only with money that won’t be missed if a pick fails.