Asian Handicap Tomorrow: What a Two-Goal Win Takes

An Asian handicap gives one side a head start so the match is closer to even. A team at -1 starts a goal down, and a team at +1 starts a goal up. You bet on which side wins once the head start is applied, and many lines return your stake on an exact result. Tomorrow’s handicap tips are in the table below, from an outside prediction provider and shown as published.

Today’s page covers how every line settles. This one is about something you can only see a day ahead: lines move. A line you see tonight may not be the line at kick-off, and the data says something useful about which one to trust.

Today’s tips

1×2 Predictions For Today Over/Under 2.5 Predictions For Today Half-Time Today
Goalscorers Predictions For Today Double Chance Predictions For Today Corners Today
Asian Handicap Predictions For Today Both Teams To Score Predictions For Today Yellow Cards Today

Gt1

CSD Municipal
Cobán Imperial

57%
Away +11–1
1 – 1
2.35
25°
–


Ni1

San Marcos
UNAN Managua

67%
Home +0.251–1
1 – 1
1.50
31°
–


Co1

Jaguares de Córdoba
Once Caldas

40%
Away 01–2
1 – 2
2.73
30°
7/20


Ar1

Argentinos Juniors
Racing Club

47%
Home -0.51–0
1 – 0
1.86
11°
11/10


Hn1

CD Motagua
Estrella Roja

45%
Home -0.51–0
1 – 0
1.56
28°
1/4


Pa1

Sporting SM FC
Alianza FC (PAN)

43%
Away -0.50–1
0 – 1
2.35
23°
–


Bo1

Oriente Petrolero
Univ de Vinto

37%
Home -1.52–0
2 – 0
2.40
29°
7/4


Sv1

CD FAS
Atlético Balboa

27%
Home -1.53–1
3 – 1
3.78
32°
17/20


LC

Philadelphia Union
Club Necaxa

63%
Away +12–2
2 – 2
3.16
29°
–


LC

Cruz Azul
New York City FC

71%
Home +0.252–2
2 – 2
3.24
33°
–


Cr1

CS Herediano
LD Alajuelense

63%
Home +11–1
1 – 1
2.40
24°
–


Cl1

Univ de Chile
Palestino

40%
Home 02–1
2 – 1
2.55
9°
3/10


Ec1

Guayaquil City
CS Emelec

65%
Away +0.51–1
1 – 1
2.30
34°
–


OFC

AS Vénus
Tiga Sport

38%
Home 01–0
1 – 0
1.78
25°
–


Gt2

CSD Sacachispas
Deportivo Mictlán

45%
Away -0.50–1
0 – 1
2.00
33°
7/4





LC

Nashville SC
Atlético San Luis

53%
Home -1.753–0
3 – 0
3.01
33°
–


LC

Chicago Fire
Santos Laguna

30%
Home -1.753–0
3 – 0
2.73
26°
–


Ni1

Matagalpa FC
Managua FC

63%
Away -1.51–3
1 – 3
3.45
–


Gt2

Huehuetecos
Cotzumalguapa

67%
Away +0.251–1
1 – 1
1.34
14°
49/10


LC

Austin FC
Puebla FC

49%
Away -0.51–2
1 – 2
2.78
36°
–


Co1

América de Cali
Atlético Nacional

41%
Home -0.52–1
2 – 1
3.01
16°
5/4


Hn1

Atlético Independiente
Atlético Choloma

38%
Home -12–0
2 – 0
1.63
17°
–


LC

San Diego
Club Tijuana

54%
Away -0.751–2
1 – 2
3.13
26°
–


LC

Club América
Portland Timbers

21%
Home -13–1
3 – 1
2.74
28°
–


OFC

Central Coast
Auckland City

62%
Home +12–2
2 – 2
3.03
25°
–


Ua1

Polissya Zhy
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv

66%
Home +0.51–1
1 – 1
1.89
27°
2/1





Am2

Andranik
Shirak-2

37%
Home -23–0
3 – 0
3.70
13°
–


Am2

Mika Yerevan
Pyunik-2

52%
Away -0.750–1
0 – 1
2.47
21°
–


By2

Gomel II
Shakhtyor Soligorsk

65%
Home +11–1
1 – 1
2.13
27°
–


By2

FK Minsk-2
Ostrovets FC

66%
Away +0.251–1
1 – 1
2.40
24°
–


Bg2

PFK Nesebar
Dobrudzha

62%
Away -0.750–1
0 – 1
1.15
23°
1/5


Ua1

Karpaty Lviv
LNZ Cherkasy

71%
Home +0.50–0
0 – 0
2.10
29°
1/2


By2

FK Orsha
FC Molodechno

50%
Away -0.51–2
1 – 2
2.61
23°
–


By2

FK Volna Pinsk
Uni Minsk

40%
Away 01–2
1 – 2
3.33
28°
–


By2

FK Smorgon
BATE II

61%
Away +11–1
1 – 1
2.10
23°
–


Sk2

MŠK Považská Bystrica
Zlate Moravce

63%
Home +12–2
2 – 2
3.49
30°
–


Am2

Urartu-2
Noah II

44%
Home -0.52–1
2 – 1
2.75
32°
–


Ro1

FC Botosani
Corvinul Hunedoara

66%
Away +0.251–1
1 – 1
1.00
29°
7/4


Lt1

Transinvest
Panevezys

51%
Home -0.751–0
1 – 0
2.33
23°
1/1


Bg1

Botev Vratsa
Slavia Sofia

67%
Away +10–0
0 – 0
1.94
34°
–


Si1

ND Mura
NK Radomlje

46%
Home -0.52–1
2 – 1
2.61
36°
9/10


Am1

Alashkert
BKMA Yerevan

-28%
Home -1.53–0
3 – 0
2.68
33°
19/20

More

Weekend tips

Weekend Over/Under 2.5 Weekend HT/FT Weekend Double Chance
Weekend Asian Handicap Weekend Both Teams To Score Weekend 1X2
Weekend Goalscorer Tips Weekend Yellow Card Tips Weekend Corner Tips

How lines settle, in short

At 0 you win if your team wins and get your stake back on a draw. At -0.5 your team must win. At -1 a one-goal win returns your stake and a win by two or more wins. Quarter lines such as -0.25 and -0.75 split your stake over the two neighbouring lines, so you can win or lose half. Always check your bookmaker’s rules for postponed or abandoned matches.

Lines move, and not very much

We compared the opening and closing handicap in 33,318 matches. The line didn’t change at all in 63.0% of them. A move of half a goal or more happened in only 2.0% (652 matches), so the typical change is a quarter of a goal at most.

When the line moves, it moves because bookmakers have taken in information: team news, betting, or a change in their own assessment. Since you can’t see that information yourself, the move is worth reading.

The closing line is the better guide

We measured how close each line was to the actual margin of the match. The average error was 1.2109 goals for the opening line and 1.2053 for the closing line. The improvement is small, and it points the right way.

The results by direction of the move are clearer. “Up” means the home team’s line became more positive, so it got a bigger start or a smaller burden.

What happened to the home line Matches Home beat the opening line Home beat the closing line
Moved up 6,188 40.6% 47.5%
Moved down 6,136 52.5% 45.1%

When the line moved up, backing the home side at the opening number would have won only 40.6% of the time. At the closing number it won 47.5%. When the line moved down, the home side beat the opening line 52.5% of the time and the closing line 45.1%.

So the early number was the worse one for whichever side the line later moved toward. The move had absorbed real information, and the closing line was the fairer bet.

What price moves say about results

The same pattern shows in the match-result prices. In 29,348 matches we compared the opening and closing home win chance. It moved by an average of 2.43 points. In 30.9% of matches it moved by 3 points or more, and in 11.1% by 5 or more.

Those moves proved right. When the home win chance rose by 3 points or more (4,688 matches), the home side won 51.1%, in line with the closing price (50.2%) and well above the opening one (45.2%). When it fell by 3 points or more (4,367 matches), the home side won only 39.2%, which matches the closing 39.5% and not the opening 44.3%.

Five rules for handicap tips

  1. Trust the closing line. It’s nearer the truth than the opening line.
  2. Don’t take a number that is about to move. If team news is due, wait for it.
  3. Read a move as information. A half-goal move or more happens in about one match in 50, and it usually means something.
  4. Check how the line settles. Know what a draw or a one-goal win does to your stake.
  5. Avoid chasing small differences. A line that moves a quarter goal changes the odds less than it seems.

Common mistakes

The first is grabbing an early line without knowing why it will move. Early numbers are the weakest.

The second is treating a line move as noise. Moves of 3 points or more in the home win chance were followed by results that matched the closing price, not the opening one.

The third is ignoring the refund. On whole-number lines, about 28% to 30% of bets are returned, and that changes what you can expect to win.

Questions people ask

Do Asian handicap lines move? Yes, in 37% of matches between opening and close.

By how much? Usually by a quarter goal. Half a goal or more is rare.

Is the opening line or closing line more accurate? The closing line, by a small margin.

Why would a line move? Team news, betting patterns and the bookmaker’s own view.

What’s a quarter line? One that splits your stake across two neighbouring lines.

Should I bet early or late? If the line is likely to move because of team news, later is usually better. The closing line has been the more accurate one.

Where are today’s and the weekend’s tips? On the today page and the weekend page.

Tips are estimates and not promises. You must be 18 or over to bet, and a stake should be money you can afford to lose.