MLS Predictions: A Shrinking Home Advantage

Major League Soccer plays across several time zones and has no relegation, and its numbers look more like the Bundesliga’s than like most European leagues. It’s high scoring, BTTS is among the highest we track, and home teams score freely. The table below holds the league’s tips from an outside prediction provider, shown as published.

The figures use 2,994 MLS matches since the start of 2021, from public results files. They cover goals and results, not corners or cards.

Related Leagues

Brasileirao Americas Football Argentine League
Ligue 1 Serie A's Weak Home Edge and Falling Goals
Major League Soccer – Round 20, Western Conference

Us1

Houston Dynamo
Los Angeles Galaxy

413524
12–0
2 – 0
2.47
21°
7/10

7/10
29/10
7/2
no
no
no

PREVIEW


Us1

Real Salt Lake
Minnesota United

393724
12–1
2 – 1
2.78
20°
7/10

7/10
29/10
33/10
no
no
no

PREVIEW


Us1

Colorado Rapids
Sporting Kansas City

571429
12–1
2 – 1
2.78
33°
2/5

2/5
7/2
17/4
no
no
no

PREVIEW


Us1

Los Angeles FC
San Diego

422632
13–2
3 – 2
3.38
27°
1/2

1/2
33/10
15/4
no
no
no

PREVIEW


Us1

San Jose Earthquakes
Saint Louis City

292150
21–2
1 – 2
3.31
29°
21/10

9/10
11/4
21/10
no
no
no

PREVIEW

0.26

Us1

Austin FC
FC Dallas

303238
21–2
1 – 2
2.59
27°
5/4

19/10
13/5
5/4
no
no
no

PREVIEW


Us1

Seattle Sounders
Vancouver Whitecaps

353233
12–1
2 – 1
2.86
24°
9/4

9/4
11/4
1/1
no
no
no

PREVIEW

0.07

Us1

New England Revolution
Houston Dynamo

422433
12–0
2 – 0
2.47
32°
27/20

27/20
13/5
19/10
no
no
no

FT
0 – 2(0 – 1)

Us1

Orlando City SC
FC Cincinnati

322740
20–2
0 – 2
2.32
28°
31/20

5/4
61/20
31/20
no
no
no

PREVIEW

0.01

Us1

Atlanta United
New York Red Bulls

282448
21–2
1 – 2
3.05
23°
12/5

4/5
29/10
12/5
no
no
no

PREVIEW

0.26

Us1

Charlotte FC
Columbus Crew

373825
X2–2
2 – 2
3.75
28°
13/5

11/10
13/5
41/20
no
no
no

PREVIEW

0.14

Us1

Toronto FC
New England Revolution

273736
X2–2
2 – 2
3.31
21°
53/20

6/5
53/20
11/5
no
no
no

PREVIEW

0.13

Us1

Montreal Impact
DC United

204931
X1–1
1 – 1
2.12
19°
5/2

6/5
5/2
2/1
no
no
no

PREVIEW

0.29

Us1

Nashville SC
Inter Miami CF

273439
20–1
0 – 1
1.90
27°
17/10

5/4
27/10
17/10
no
no
no

PREVIEW

0.03

Us1

Chicago Fire
Portland Timbers

382339
21–2
1 – 2
3.09
22°
4/1

11/20
7/2
4/1
no
no
no

PREVIEW

0.24

Us1

New York City FC
Philadelphia Union

481933
12–1
2 – 1
2.91
19°
23/20

23/20
5/2
11/5
no
no
no

PREVIEW

0.03
North American Soccer League – Round 30, Fall Season

Us3

Puerto Rico FC
FC Edmonton

254135
X0–0
0 – 0
1.65
18°
21/10

5/4
21/10
12/5
-1
0
1

FT
2 – 0(2 – 0)
0.13

Us3

Puerto Rico FC
New York Cosmos

123850
20–3
0 – 3
2.54
20°
–

11/2
–
–
1
1
1

FT
2 – 5(0 – 0)

Us3

Miami FC
FC Edmonton

692110
12–0
2 – 0
1.38
23°
–

–
4/1
10/1
1
1
1

FT
2 – 1(0 – 0)

Us3

SF Deltas
Jacksonville Armada

304822
X1–1
1 – 1
1.83
10°
5/2

3/4
5/2
16/5
1
-1
0

FT
0 – 2(0 – 1)
0.27

Us3

Indy Eleven
North Carolina FC

273340
21–3
1 – 3
2.80
11°
–

–
–
–


FT
2 – 2(1 – 1)
1
USL Championship – Round 23, Eastern Conference

Us2

Pittsburgh Riverhounds
Charleston Battery

392536
11–0
1 – 0
1.97
20°
17/10

17/10
11/5
8/5
no
no
no

0.04

Us2

Detroit City FC
Loudoun United

452927
11–0
1 – 0
2.00
20°
11/20

11/20
31/10
43/10
no
no
no


Us2

Hartford Athletic
Miami FC II

483319
12–0
2 – 0
2.10
15°
4/5

4/5
14/5
29/10
no
no
no


Us2

Sporting JAX
Indy Eleven

382140
21–2
1 – 2
3.00
30°
4/5

27/10
29/10
4/5
no
no
no


Us2

Tampa Bay Rowdies
Rhode Island

401842
21–3
1 – 3
3.73
29°
16/5

7/10
14/5
16/5
no
no
no

0.24

Us2

San Antonio FC
El Paso Locomotive

422830
13–2
3 – 2
2.81
27°
21/20

21/20
12/5
5/2
no
no
no


Us2

CS Switchbacks
Birmingham Legion

511931
12–0
2 – 0
2.13
19°
1/2

1/2
16/5
87/20
no
no
no


Us2

New Mexico United
FC Tulsa

313534
X1–1
1 – 1
2.22
23°
5/2

5/4
5/2
2/1
no
no
no

0.09

Us2

Oakland Roots
Monterey Bay

522920
13–0
3 – 0
3.04
16°
3/4

3/4
14/5
16/5
no
no
no


Us2

Orange County SC
Louisville City

352738
21–2
1 – 2
3.63
22°
3/4

16/5
14/5
3/4
no
no
no


Us2

Las Vegas Lights
Brooklyn FC

403327
11–0
1 – 0
1.38
34°
9/10

9/10
14/5
5/2
up
down
down


Us2

Sacramento Republic
Lexington

254926
X1–1
1 – 1
1.92
23°
7/2

1/2
7/2
17/4
no
no
no

0.34
US Open Cup – Quarter-finals

UsC

Orlando City SC
Atlanta United

353431
12–1
2 – 1
2.70
30°
5/4

5/4
13/5
8/5
no
no
no

FT
4 – 1(4 – 0)

UsC

Saint Louis City
Houston Dynamo

352837
22–3
2 – 3
2.50
19°
2/1

21/20
12/5
2/1
no
no
no

Pen.
FT
4 – 2

2 – 2(1 – 2)

0.06

UsC

Colorado Rapids
San Jose Earthquakes

303436
21–2
1 – 2
2.92
19°
21/10

19/20
27/10
21/10
no
no
no

FT
2 – 0(2 – 0)
0.06

UsC

Columbus Crew
New York City FC

392932
12–1
2 – 1
2.67
15°
17/20

17/20
5/2
11/5
no
no
no

FT
1 – 2(0 – 1)
USL League One – Round 24, Regular Season

Us4

Forward Madison
Greenville Triumph

562717
12–1
2 – 1
2.71
26°
–

–
–
–



Us4

Charlotte Independence
Sarasota Paradise

483023
12–0
2 – 0
1.50
28°
–

–
–
–



Us4

Greenville Triumph
One Knoxville

341848
21–2
1 – 2
3.00
25°
–

–
–
–



Us4

Westchester SC
Naples

462826
12–0
2 – 0
2.42
20°
–

–
–
–



Us4

New York Cosmos
Alta

271855
20–3
0 – 3
3.21
12°
–

–
–
–



Us4

Fort Wayne
Chattanooga RW

492625
12–1
2 – 1
2.75
20°
–

–
–
–



Us4

Spokane Velocity
Corpus Christi

285319
X1–1
1 – 1
0.90
27°
–

–
–
–



Us4

Athletic Club Boise
Tormenta

433027
12–0
2 – 0
0.60
26°
–

–
–
–


Cancl.


Us4

Portland Hearts of Pine
Forward Madison

222948
21–2
1 – 2
2.50
28°
–

–
–
–



Us4

Union Omaha
Richmond Kickers

671419
12–1
2 – 1
2.77
23°
–

–
–
–


USL League Two – Round 25, Championship – Final

Us4

Flint City Bucks
Vermont Green

332543
20–1
0 – 1
1.80
25°
3/4

13/5
16/5
3/4
no
no
no

FT
1 – 2(0 – 0)

More Predictions

1X2 Tips For Tomorrow Double Chance Tomorrow Football Tomorrow
Both Teams To Score Tomorrow Tomorrow's Goalscorer Tips Yellow Card Tips For Tomorrow
Tomorrow's Corner Tips Half-Time/Full-Time Tomorrow Asian Handicap Tomorrow

The league in numbers

Measure MLS Average of 18 European leagues
Goals a match 2.98 2.69
Over 2.5 goals 58.4% 50.7%
Over 3.5 goals 34.6% 29.2%
Both teams scored 60.1% 52.7%
Home win 46.6% 43.5%
Draw 26.3% 26.2%
Away win 27.2% 30.3%

Matches averaged 2.98 goals, and over 2.5 landed in 58.4%. Both teams scored in 60.1%, the same as the Bundesliga’s 60.1%, which is the highest of the European leagues we track.

Goals have been climbing

By season, goals ran 2.78, 2.97, 2.75, 3.11 and 3.02, and the current season has 3.25 across 450 matches. That’s the highest figure of the six, though it isn’t finished.

The last three seasons have all been above 3.0, against under 3.0 for the first three. A line set from 2021 or 2023 would be too low now.

Home advantage

Home teams won 46.6% of MLS matches and away teams only 27.2%, the biggest gap between them in the data apart from Brazil. The home side scored 1.71 goals a match and the visitors 1.26. The home team was blanked in only 17.8% of matches, the lowest rate we track, and the away side in 28.7%.

The home win rate has come down a little. Season by season it ran 47.7%, 49.1%, 48.2%, 45.0%, 44.3% and 45.6%. The last three seasons are about three points below the first three.

Draws and covers

Draws were 26.3%, about the European rate. Home win or draw (1X) landed in 72.9% of matches, one of the highest in our data. Away win or draw (X2) landed only 53.5%. Either team winning (12) landed in 73.8%.

If you want a protective bet, the home cover has been very strong in MLS and the away cover is weak.

Both teams scoring

BTTS landed in 60.1%. The home side scored in 82.2% of matches (100% minus the 17.8% it was blanked) and the away side in 71.3%. Multiplying gives 58.6%, a touch below the actual rate.

It’s the home side’s reliability that sets MLS apart. Nearly every home team scores, and a visitor scores about seven times in ten.

Scorelines

The most common score was 1-1 (11.0%), then 2-1 (10.6%), 1-0 (8.0%), 1-2 (7.2%) and 2-0 (6.9%). The top two scores both have a goal at each end, which is consistent with a BTTS rate of 60%. Only 6.6% of matches ended 0-0.

How reliable are favourites?

Favourite’s chance at the price Matches Favourite won
Under 45% 1,103 37.3%
45% to 55% 1,108 49.4%
55% to 65% 623 61.2%
65% or more 159 69.2%

Favourites at 55% to 65% won 61.2%, close to their price. At 65% or more they won 69.2%, below the roughly 77% of European favourites at that price, though the sample is just 159 matches. With few draws and lots of goals, MLS isn’t a league where short prices have been generous.

Corners and cards

We don’t have corner or card figures for MLS. The results file has goals and prices only. If you bet on those lines, use the general rules on our corner and card pages and check the referee.

We also don’t use weekday shares for MLS, because the results file lists dates in UK time, so an American evening kick-off can appear as the next day.

Five rules for MLS tips

  1. Lean on goals and BTTS. Over 2.5 starts at 58.4% and BTTS at 60.1%.
  2. Expect the home side to score. It was blanked in fewer than one match in five.
  3. Use the home cover. 1X landed 72.9% of the time.
  4. Update the goals line. The last three seasons averaged over 3.0.
  5. Be careful with short prices. A 65% favourite won under 70%.

Common mistakes

The first is applying European draw and goals numbers. MLS has more goals and a bigger home edge.

The second is backing the away side’s cover. X2 landed barely more than half the time.

The third is trusting last season’s numbers without checking the trend. The league has been moving up.

Questions people ask

How many goals in an MLS match? 2.98 since 2021, and over 3.0 in the last three seasons.

How often do both teams score? 60.1% of matches.

Is home advantage big in MLS? Yes. Home teams won 46.6% and failed to score only 17.8% of the time.

How often are MLS matches drawn? 26.3%.

Do you have corner and card data for MLS? No.

Is MLS high scoring? Yes. 2.98 goals a match is well above the European average of 2.69.

Do draws matter in MLS? About one match in four is drawn, so they matter as much as anywhere in Europe.

Where are other leagues? See Brazil and the Americas page.

Tips are estimates and not promises. You must be 18 or over to bet, and a stake should be money you can afford to lose.