The Brazilian Serie A has twenty clubs and 380 matches a season, and in our data it has the biggest home advantage of any league. Home teams win nearly half their matches and away teams struggle to score, which shapes every bet on it. The table below holds the league’s tips from an outside prediction provider, shown as published.
The figures come from 2,321 matches since the start of 2021, taken from public results files. They cover goals and results, not corners or cards.
Related Leagues
| Serie A's Weak Home Edge and Falling Goals | Premier League Predictions | Bayern's Effect on the Bundesliga's Numbers |
| Why La Liga Hands Out So Many Cards | Ligue 1 | Brasileirao |
Br1
Fluminense
Palmeiras
21/10
8/5
no
no
no
Br1
Atlético PR
RB Bragantino
9/4
27/10
no
no
no
Br1
São Paulo
Coritiba
13/5
4/1
no
no
no
Br1
Chapecoense SC
Bahia
12/5
21/20
no
no
no
Br1
Atlético Mineiro
Grêmio
12/5
15/4
no
no
no
Br1
Vasco da Gama
Santos
12/5
11/4
no
no
no
Br1
Mirassol SP
Flamengo
12/5
4/5
no
no
no
Br1
Vitória
Botafogo
9/4
2/1
no
no
no
Br1
Corinthians
Cruzeiro
11/5
11/5
no
no
no
Br1
Internacional
Remo PA
11/4
9/2
no
no
no
Br1
Grêmio
São Paulo
21/10
12/5
no
no
no
Br1
Remo PA
Atlético Mineiro
21/10
7/4
no
no
no
Br1
Coritiba
Chapecoense SC
5/2
19/4
no
no
no
Br1
Botafogo
Fluminense
21/10
12/5
no
no
no
Br1
Cruzeiro
Mirassol SP
11/4
17/4
no
no
no
Br1
Palmeiras
Internacional
61/20
9/2
no
no
no
Br1
Bahia
Vasco da Gama
12/5
27/10
no
no
no
Br1
RB Bragantino
Corinthians
2/1
5/2
up
up
down
Br1
Santos
Atlético PR
11/5
27/10
no
no
no
Br1
Flamengo
Vitória
9/2
11/1
no
no
no
More Predictions
The league in numbers
| Measure | Brazil | Average of 18 European leagues |
|---|---|---|
| Goals a match | 2.45 | 2.69 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.2% | 50.7% |
| Both teams scored | 50.0% | 52.7% |
| Home win | 47.0% | 43.5% |
| Draw | 27.4% | 26.2% |
| Away win | 25.6% | 30.3% |
Brazil scores less than Europe and favours the home side more. Matches averaged 2.45 goals, and over 2.5 landed in 45.2% of them. BTTS came in at exactly half.
The biggest home advantage
Home teams won 47.0% of matches, the highest rate in our data, and away teams only 25.6%. The home side scored 1.42 goals a match against 1.03 for the visitors.
The away side is the weak point: it failed to score in 35.4% of matches, more than one in three. That’s why BTTS sits at 50.0% even though the league isn’t a low-scoring one.
By season the home win rate ran 45.8%, 44.2%, 46.8%, 47.4%, 50.3% and 47.2% (the last one to date). The 2025 season, at 50.3%, was the first in our data in which half of all matches went to the home side.
Goals are rising
Goals a match have gone up. From 2021 to 2025 they ran 2.22, 2.38, 2.49, 2.44 and 2.52.
The 2026 season has 2.66 across 309 matches. A goals line based on 2021 would be about 0.3 of a goal too low for 2025. Over the whole period, over 1.5 landed in 71.3% of matches and over 3.5 in 21.7%.
Draws and covers
Draws were 27.4% of matches. Adding the results together gives the covers. Home win or draw landed in 74.4% of matches, the highest of any league we track, while away win or draw landed in only 53.0%, the lowest. Either team winning landed in 72.6%.
That’s the sharpest contrast in the data. A home cover is almost the standard bet in Brazil, which is why the price on it is usually short.
Scorelines
The most common score was 1-1 (13.5%), very close to 1-0 (13.2%). Then 2-1 (10.6%), 2-0 (8.4%) and 0-1 (7.8%). 0-0 was 7.8% of matches.
How reliable are favourites?
| Favourite’s chance at the price | Matches | Favourite won |
|---|---|---|
| Under 45% | 950 | 41.6% |
| 45% to 55% | 712 | 52.0% |
| 55% to 65% | 459 | 59.5% |
| 65% or more | 200 | 73.0% |
Prices were close to right. A favourite at 65% or more won 73.0% of the time, a little below the 77% we see in Europe at the same price, and a weak favourite under 45% won 41.6%.
A list of ten
Say tomorrow’s list has ten Brazilian matches. At the long-run rates you’d expect about five home wins, three draws and two or three away wins. The away team would fail to score in three or four of them, and a goalless draw would turn up about once in every thirteen matches.
An away win in a particular match isn’t impossible. Away teams won one match in four. But a list that’s full of away picks is going against the biggest home edge in the data.
Corners and cards
We don’t have corner or card figures for Brazil. The results file has goals and prices only, so we can’t say how many corners a Brazilian match has or how strict the referees are. We’d rather say that than borrow European numbers, which don’t carry over.
Five rules for Brazilian tips
- Respect the home side. 47.0% home wins is the highest in our data.
- Don’t expect the away team to score. It was blanked in 35.4% of matches.
- Use the home cover for protection. It landed three matches in four.
- Keep your goals line current. The average has moved by half a goal in five years.
- Skip bets we can’t measure. Corners and cards aren’t backed by data here.
Common mistakes
The first is backing BTTS yes because the home team scores a lot. The visitors often don’t.
The second is applying a 2021 goals line to 2026.
The third is paying for a cover on the away side. It lands only about half the time.
Questions people ask
How many teams are in the Brazilian Serie A? Twenty, with 380 matches a season.
How many goals per match? 2.45 since 2021, and rising.
Is home advantage big in Brazil? Yes. Home teams win 47.0% of matches.
How often do both teams score? 50.0% of the time.
How often is a match drawn? 27.4%.
Why are goals rising in Brazil? Our data shows the rise but not the cause, so we don’t offer one.
Is a home win a safe bet in Brazil? It’s the likeliest result at 47.0%, and it still fails more often than it wins.
Where are other leagues? See Argentina and the Americas page.
Tips are estimates and not promises. You must be 18 or over to bet, and a stake should be money you can afford to lose.