Champions League Predictions: How Safe Is a First-Leg Lead?

In 86 two-legged Champions League ties since 2021/22, the team that won the first leg went through 56 times out of 69, or 81.2%. A first-leg win on the road was nearly decisive: 31 of 33 away first-leg winners progressed (93.9%). A one-goal lead was much shakier, holding in only 66.7% of ties.

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3rd Qualifying Round

UCL

Kairat Almaty
Levski Sofia

283834
X1–1
1 – 1
1.97
36°
21/10

19/10
21/10
31/20
no
no
no

FT
0 – 1(0 – 1)
0.08

UCL

Bodo/Glimt
Union Saint-Gilloise

393130
13–0
3 – 0
2.92
11°
3/5

3/5
16/5
15/4
no
no
no

AET
FT
3 – 2

2 – 2(0 – 0)


UCL

Sabah
AGF Aarhus

343036
20–1
0 – 1
2.39
29°
27/10

17/20
27/10
27/10
down
no
no

FT
4 – 0(0 – 0)
0.12

UCL

FK Kauno Zalgiris
Dinamo Zagreb

253540
21–2
1 – 2
3.14
18°
9/20

6/1
16/5
9/20
no
no
no

FT
1 – 2(0 – 2)

UCL

Nijmegen
Olympiacos FC

274231
X1–1
1 – 1
1.67
22°
9/4

5/4
9/4
21/10
no
no
no

AET
FT
2 – 1

1 – 1(0 – 0)

0.17

UCL

Crvena Zvezda
Hapoel Beer Sheva

361252
20–3
0 – 3
2.51
38°
9/1

1/4
21/4
9/1
no
no
no

FT
0 – 2(0 – 0)
0.48

UCL

Celje
Ararat-Armenia

304129
X0–0
0 – 0
2.47
33°
7/2

2/5
7/2
11/2
no
no
no

FT
2 – 0(0 – 0)
0.25

UCL

Slovan Bratislava
Mjällby AIF

513019
11–0
1 – 0
2.21
31°
17/20

17/20
11/4
27/10
no
no
no

FT
2 – 0(0 – 0)

UCL

Sturm Graz
Fenerbahçe

303931
X1–1
1 – 1
2.22
33°
33/10

29/10
33/10
3/4
no
no
no

FT
0 – 1(0 – 0)
0.21

UCL

Lyon
Sparta Praha

621721
13–0
3 – 0
3.17
32°
2/5

2/5
17/4
6/1
down
up
up

FT
3 – 0(1 – 0)
3rd Qualifying Round

UCL

Ararat-Armenia
Celje

284923
X1–1
1 – 1
1.81
36°
11/5

17/10
11/5
29/20
up
down
down

FT
2 – 1(1 – 1)
0.26

UCL

Mjällby AIF
Slovan Bratislava

272944
20–1
0 – 1
2.06
19°
12/5

1/1
9/4
12/5
up
down
down

FT
1 – 2(0 – 0)
0.21

UCL

Levski Sofia
Kairat Almaty

383626
12–1
2 – 1
2.67
33°
3/5

3/5
12/5
21/4
up
down
down

FT
1 – 0(0 – 0)

UCL

Hapoel Beer Sheva
Crvena Zvezda

313930
X2–2
2 – 2
3.03
26°
13/5

4/1
13/5
3/5
up
down
down

FT
1 – 0(1 – 0)
0.16

UCL

Sparta Praha
Lyon

241957
20–3
0 – 3
2.65
35°
6/5

7/4
5/2
6/5
up
down
down

FT
2 – 1(0 – 1)
0.14

UCL

Union Saint-Gilloise
Bodo/Glimt

274132
X1–1
1 – 1
2.01
25°
12/5

31/20
12/5
3/2
up
down
down

FT
3 – 3(2 – 2)
0.16

UCL

Olympiacos FC
Nijmegen

412039
11–0
1 – 0
2.33
34°
11/20

11/20
61/20
4/1
up
down
down

FT
0 – 0(0 – 0)

UCL

Dinamo Zagreb
FK Kauno Zalgiris

403624
11–0
1 – 0
2.10
39°
1/10

1/10
6/1
16/1
up
down
down

FT
5 – 0(2 – 0)

UCL

AGF Aarhus
Sabah

232750
21–3
1 – 3
3.18
29°
7/2

13/20
11/4
7/2
up
down
down

FT
2 – 1(1 – 0)
0.36

UCL

Fenerbahçe
Sturm Graz

314821
X2–2
2 – 2
2.72
31°
9/2

3/10
9/2
7/1
up
down
down

FT
2 – 0(2 – 0)
0.35

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What the first leg tells you

After the first leg Ties Went through
Home side won 36 First-leg winner 69.4%
Away side won 33 First-leg winner 93.9%
Drawn 17 Second-leg host 70.6%
First-leg margin Ties First-leg winner went through
1 goal 33 66.7%
2 goals 20 95.0%
3 goals or more 16 93.8%

A two-goal lead was almost enough: 19 of 20 teams ahead by two went through. The step from one goal to two is worth almost 30 points, while a third goal added nothing.

The home win in the first leg is a weaker signal because the home side is expected to win more often. A road win says more about the relative strength of the teams, which is probably why those ties were almost always settled in the winner’s favour.

The second leg

Second legs produced more goals than first legs, 3.23 a match against 2.99. The team hosting the second leg won 51.2% of those matches, drew 24.4% and lost 24.4%. Overall, the first-leg hosts went through only 37.2% of the time, which means the side that opens away is more likely to advance. The second-leg host gets the last word, and seeding often gives that role to the better-placed club.

Drawn first legs went to the second-leg host 12 times in 17. Penalties settled only 5 of the 86 ties, three of them in 2023/24.

Comebacks

Thirteen teams lost their first leg and still went through. Two recent ones stand out. Atalanta lost 2-0 at Dortmund in the 2025/26 play-off round and won 4-1 at home in the second leg to go through 4-3 on aggregate. In the round of 16 the same season, Sporting lost their first leg 3-0 to Bodø/Glimt and won the second 5-0 after extra time to progress 5-3.

For Champions League tips

A first-leg lead is worth the most when it is two goals or more, or when it was won away. A one-goal home win leaves the tie close to a coin toss with a slight edge for the leader, and a drawn first leg gives the second-leg host the advantage.

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