Here are the 1X2 tips for Saturday and Sunday: 1 for a home win, X for a draw and 2 for an away win, settled on the 90 minutes plus added time. The table below is from an outside prediction provider and shown as published. About three quarters of all league football is played at the weekend, so it’s the longest list of the week.
This page is about home advantage, because it’s the one fact about 1X2 that never goes away, and about whether weekends are any different from midweek. We checked, using 33,323 matches.
Today’s tips
Kz1
FK Aktobe
FK Atyrau
11/5
21/10
no
no
no
–
–
Ua2
Niva Ternopil
UCSA
12/5
37/20
no
no
no
–
–
Ru4
FK Astrakhan
PSK Dinskaya
37/20
3/2
no
no
no
–
–
AtN
Wallern / Marienkirchen
Kuchl
–
–
AuA
Brindabella Blues
Tuggeranong United
4/1
2/5
no
no
no
–
–
Cz4
Břidličná
Sulko Zabreh
–
–
Cz4
Hlinsko
FK Kolín
–
–
Jp3
Ryukyu
Giravanz K.
–
–
AtL
Schwarzach
Union Henndorf
3/1
4/1
no
no
no
–
–
Kr1
Gangwon FC
Incheon United
5/2
1/1
no
no
no
–
–
De6
Nurnberg U19
Eintracht Frankfurt U19
–
–
Pl4
Korona II Kielce
Wisła II Kraków
14/5
5/4
no
no
no
–
–
PlY
Jagiellonia U19
Legia Warszawa U19
–
–
Ua2
PFK Aleksandriya
Inhulets Petrove
7/2
5/1
no
no
no
24
5/2
19/4
Tomorrow and the weekend
How the bet works
The 90 minutes plus added time decide a 1X2 bet, so extra time and penalties are ignored. If a match is postponed, the bet is normally void. If you want a safer cover, double chance combines two of the three results.
Does the weekend change results?
We split 33,323 matches by weekday. Saturday and Sunday matches were 73.2% of the total.
| Day | Matches | Home win | Draw |
|---|---|---|---|
| Friday | 2,959 | 45.0% | 26.5% |
| Saturday | 15,389 | 43.6% | 25.8% |
| Sunday | 8,994 | 43.0% | 26.2% |
| Tuesday | 2,274 | 41.3% | 27.9% |
| Wednesday | 1,394 | 46.3% | 25.6% |
The weekend isn’t different. Home wins were 43.4% on Saturdays and Sundays together and 43.4% from Tuesday to Thursday. The same is true inside individual leagues, where the weekend-minus-midweek gap in home wins ran from 3.8 points lower to 6.1 points higher, and those samples are small. If you’re told that weekend favourites are safer, the data doesn’t show it. Friday and Wednesday matches had slightly higher home win rates, at 45.0% and 46.3%, but the Friday sample is a fifth the size of Saturday’s and the Wednesday sample smaller still, so we wouldn’t read much into them.
Home advantage in detail
Home advantage is large and it shows up everywhere. Home teams scored 55.4% of the goals in our data. They had 13.54 shots a game against 11.16, and 4.67 shots on target against 3.84. They took 54.9% of the corners.
Interestingly, they commit fewer fouls (49.3% of the total) and get fewer yellow cards (46.6%) and red cards (45.0%).
The result is a win rate of 43.5% for the home side, 30.3% for the visitors and 26.2% draws. Away wins need a lot to go right.
When the crowds went away
The 2020/21 season, when most matches were played in empty stadiums, is the clearest test. In the top five leagues, the home share of goals fell from between 55% and 58% in the previous seasons to 52.7%. It went back up to about 55% the following year. That suggests part of the home edge comes from the crowd, though other things changed that season too.
League by league
Home win rates differ. The Scottish Premiership (46.0%) and La Liga (45.7%) are high, and Serie A (40.4%) and Serie B (40.5%) are low. In Serie B 32.0% of matches were drawn, the most of any league.
What a weekend list should look like
Take a list of forty matches. At the rates above you’d expect about 17 home wins, 10 draws and 12 away wins. A list that shows 30 home picks is telling you something about the way the tips were chosen, not about how the weekend will go.
It also means that on any given weekend, a handful of away wins and a handful of draws are normal. They’re not the table being wrong. They’re what 30.3% and 26.2% look like in a long list.
Five rules for weekend 1X2 tips
- Use home advantage as the baseline. 43.5% is where a typical match starts.
- Don’t assume weekends are safer. The home win rate was the same.
- Check the league. A 5-point difference separates the high and low home-win leagues.
- Remember the draw. 26.2% of matches, and 1-1 is the usual score.
- Keep your list short. A weekend has dozens of matches, and nobody can read them all properly.
Common mistakes
The first is backing every home favourite. Even heavy ones lose or draw one match in five or six.
The second is believing a day-of-week pattern. The data shows no weekend effect on results.
The third is skipping the team news. The tips you see were prepared before line-ups were known, and a rested or injured star changes a match more than the day it’s played on.
Questions people ask
Do home teams win more at the weekend? No. 43.4% at the weekend and 43.4% from Tuesday to Thursday.
How big is home advantage? Home sides win 43.5% of matches against 30.3% for away sides.
Did empty stadiums matter? The home share of goals dropped to 52.7% in the top five leagues in 2020/21.
Which league has the biggest home edge? Of the 18 in our data, the Scottish Premiership and La Liga have the highest home win rates.
Why do weekend lists have so many home picks? Home wins are the most common single result, at 43.5% of matches, so a list of favourites naturally leans to the home side.
Where are today’s and tomorrow’s tips? On the today page and the tomorrow page.
Tips are estimates, not promises. You must be 18 or over to bet, and a stake should be money you could lose without trouble.