Double chance covers two of the three match results with one bet. 1X wins if the home team wins or the match is drawn. X2 wins if the away team wins or it’s drawn. 12 wins if either team wins, so only a draw beats it. You give up a bigger price in return for a much better chance of winning.
The table below lists today’s double chance tips from an outside prediction provider, shown as published. Under it, we look at how often each cover lands, and how the favourite’s strength changes the answer, using 33,364 league matches.
Other tips for today
Cz3
Karvina II
CSK Uherský Brod
42
Tomorrow’s tips
How a double chance bet is settled
It’s settled on the result after 90 minutes plus added time. Extra time and penalties don’t count. A bet on 1X wins on a 2-2 draw or a 1-0 home win and loses only on an away win. A bet on 12 loses only on a draw, so a 0-0 is a loser. If a match is postponed the bet is normally void, and abandoned matches follow the bookmaker’s own rule.
Double chance is different from draw no bet. With draw no bet you pick one team and get your stake back if the match is drawn. With double chance you win on the draw, and you lose the whole stake if the third result happens.
How often each cover lands
Across 33,364 matches the three versions landed at very different rates:
| Cover | What it needs | Landed |
|---|---|---|
| 1X | Home win or draw | 69.6% |
| 12 | Either side wins | 73.9% |
| X2 | Draw or away win | 56.5% |
The gap between 1X and X2 is the home advantage again. Home teams win more than away teams, so “home or draw” is far likelier than “away or draw”. 12 lands in nearly three matches out of four because only the draw defeats it, and the draw happens in 26.1% of games.
The league changes the answer
| League | 1X | X2 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Segunda División | 74.3% | 54.9% | 70.8% |
| La Liga | 71.9% | 54.3% | 73.8% |
| Premier League | 68.1% | 55.8% | 76.1% |
| Serie A | 67.6% | 59.6% | 72.8% |
| Serie B | 72.5% | 59.5% | 68.0% |
| Scottish Premiership | 69.9% | 54.0% | 76.1% |
Premier League and Scottish Premiership matches had the fewest draws, so 12 landed 76.1% of the time. Serie B had the most draws (32.0%), and 12 landed only 68.0%. If you like 12, the league tells you whether the draw is a real risk.
How the favourite’s strength changes the cover
The most useful way to use double chance is on the favourite. We took every match, found the favourite from the closing price, and counted how often “favourite or draw” landed:
| Favourite’s chance at the price | Matches | Favourite or draw |
|---|---|---|
| Under 40% | 7,087 | 68.0% |
| 40% to 45% | 6,902 | 72.4% |
| 45% to 55% | 9,683 | 77.8% |
| 55% to 65% | 5,349 | 84.4% |
| 65% to 75% | 2,708 | 90.5% |
| 75% or more | 1,606 | 95.2% |
The cover climbs steadily and reaches 95.2% for the strongest favourites. It’s the reason double chance is popular with people building accumulators. It’s also the reason prices on it are short. A cover that lands 95% of the time pays close to the stake.
The other side, backing the underdog or the draw, falls fast: 38.5% when the favourite was priced at 55% to 65%, 27.2% at 65% to 75%, and 16.3% above that.
Why short prices aren’t free money
A favourite rated 75% or better won 83.7% of the time over 1,606 matches, at an average decimal price of 1.19. Backing every one of them returned almost exactly what was staked (a return of -0.2%). That’s what a fair price looks like. Double chance doesn’t change it. A cover that lands more often pays less, and a run of losses is still possible. The longest run of 75%-plus favourites failing to win in our data was four in a row.
Five rules for double chance tips
- Cover the favourite, not the middle. When the favourite is under 45%, “favourite or draw” lands only 68% to 72% of the time, which isn’t much of a cover.
- Don’t use 12 when a draw is likely. In Serie B and Segunda a draw comes round in three matches out of ten.
- Remember X2 is the hardest. Away teams have less cushion, and X2 landed only 56.5% of the time.
- Be careful with accumulators. Four covers at 85% each land together only 52% of the time.
- Check the team news. A cover on a favourite who loses its main striker is weaker than the table says.
Common mistakes
One mistake is treating a cover as safe. 90% still means a loss in one match in ten.
Another is covering a team that isn’t a clear favourite. Under 45%, the cover is closer to a coin flip with a small edge.
The third is ignoring the price. A very short price for a cover has almost no room for error across many bets.
Questions people ask
What does 1X2 double chance mean? It’s three covers: 1X, X2 and 12.
Is 1X the same as draw no bet on the home team? No. 1X wins on a draw, while draw no bet returns your stake on a draw.
Which double chance wins most? 12, at 73.9% across all matches.
Which is safest? For a strong favourite, favourite or draw. At 75% and above it landed 95.2% of the time.
Is 12 the same as no draw? Yes. Some bookmakers call it no draw.
Does extra time count? No. The bet is on 90 minutes plus added time.
Where are tomorrow’s and the weekend’s tips? On the tomorrow page and the weekend page.
Tips are estimates, never promises. You must be 18 or over to bet, and a stake should come from money you can afford to lose.