Over/under bets are about the total goals in a match. The 2.5 line is the famous one, but bookmakers also offer 1.5, 3.5 and more. Over 1.5 wins on two goals or more. Over 2.5 needs three. Over 3.5 needs four. For each line, the under bet is the opposite.
The table below lists tomorrow’s over/under tips from an outside prediction provider, shown as published. Under it we compare the lines that matter, using 14,617 league matches from the last three seasons, so you can see how much easier or harder each one is.
Today’s tips
Mx2
Venados Yucatán
CD Tapatio
Sv1
Inter F.A
Alianza FC
Us2
Lexington
Phoenix Rising
Us2
Miami FC II
Las Vegas Lights
Us2
Pittsburgh Riverhounds
Sacramento Republic
Us2
Loudoun United
Charleston Battery
Us2
Brooklyn FC
Birmingham Legion
Us4
Portland Hearts of Pine
Corpus Christi
Us4
New York Cosmos
Spokane Velocity
Us4
Chattanooga RW
Union Omaha
Us4
Charlotte Independence
Greenville Triumph
MxW
Querétaro W
Santos Laguna W
Hn1
Lobos UPNFM
Olancho
Pa1
CD Plaza Amador
Tauro FC
Co1
Deportes Tolima
Internacional de Bogotá
Br1
Coritiba
Chapecoense SC
Bo1
Aurora FC
Bolívar
Us2
Rhode Island
CS Switchbacks
Us4
Tormenta
Westchester SC
Us4
One Knoxville
Sarasota Paradise
Br1
Botafogo
Fluminense
Cr1
Escorpiones Belén
Pérez Zeledón
Ec1
Barcelona SC
Macará
By2
Bumprom
FK Slonim
Cl2
Deportes Temuco
CD Magallanes
Ni1
Diriangén FC
Rancho Santana
Us2
Louisville City
San Antonio FC
OFC
Toti City Dwellers
Tupapa Maraerenga
Cr2
Grecia
Quepos Cambute
Ca1
Supra du Québec
Cavalry FC
Nz2
Nelson Suburbs
Christchurch United
LC
Inter Miami CF
CF Monterrey
Ar1
Instituto Córdoba
Gimnasia Mendoza
Ar1
Independiente
CA Platense
Us2
FC Tulsa
Detroit City FC
Mx2
Tampico Madero
Cruz Azul Hidalgo
Mx2
Monarcas Morelia
Cancun
Pe1
Sport Boys
Alianza Lima
Gt1
Antigua GFC
Deportivo Guastatoya
Sv1
Luís Ángel Firpo
Municipal Limeño
Us2
El Paso Locomotive
Oakland Roots
Gt2
Santa Rosa
Deportivo Achuapa
Weekend tips
| Weekend Football | Weekend Over/Under 2.5 | Weekend HT/FT |
| Weekend Double Chance | Weekend Asian Handicap | Weekend Both Teams To Score |
| Weekend 1X2 | Weekend Goalscorer Tips | Weekend Yellow Card Tips |
How these bets are settled
Every goal in the 90 minutes plus added time counts, including own goals and penalties. Extra time and shoot-outs aren’t included in the standard bet, and postponed matches are normally void. The lines at 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5 are half-goal lines, so a bet is either won or lost and never refunded. Some bookmakers also offer whole-goal lines such as 2 or 3, where an exact match returns your stake.
How many goals a match really has
The average was 2.72 goals. This is how the totals were spread:
| Goals in the match | Share |
|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0% |
| 1 | 17.7% |
| 2 | 23.4% |
| 3 | 22.7% |
| 4 | 15.5% |
| 5 | 8.0% |
| 6 or more | 5.7% |
Two goals and three goals are the commonest results, and they sit either side of the 2.5 line. That’s why 2.5 is close to a coin flip: 51.9% of matches went over. The 1.5 line is easier, with 75.3% over. The 3.5 line is harder, with 29.2% over.
The three lines, league by league
| League | Over 1.5 | Over 2.5 | Over 3.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bundesliga | 82.1% | 62.8% | 43.8% |
| Eredivisie | 84.7% | 60.5% | 38.8% |
| Premier League | 79.8% | 55.7% | 31.7% |
| La Liga | 75.4% | 50.1% | 26.3% |
| Serie A | 73.0% | 48.1% | 24.6% |
| Greek Super League | 73.7% | 48.4% | 22.8% |
| Ligue 2 | 69.5% | 47.8% | 27.3% |
The Dutch and German leagues clear every line more often. Over 3.5 happened in 43.8% of Bundesliga matches and 22.8% of Greek ones, a gap of twenty-one points. Over 1.5 ranged from 69.5% in Ligue 2 to 84.7% in the Eredivisie.
What each line is good for
Over 1.5 is a favourite of people who want a bet that wins most of the time. It lands in about three matches out of four, so the price is short. The matches that fail are 0-0 draws and one-goal results, 24.7% in total.
Over 2.5 is the balanced line. You need an opinion about the league and the teams, because the baseline is 52%.
Over 3.5 wins about three times in ten, which is why it pays more. It’s mostly a Bundesliga and Eredivisie bet, since those two leagues are the only ones in the data where it lands more than 38% of the time.
Under 3.5 is the mirror of over 3.5 and lands about 71% of the time across all leagues.
Fouls and goals
Matches with many fouls tend to have fewer goals. Matches with 17 fouls or fewer averaged 3.00 goals and went over 2.5 in 57.6% of cases. Matches with 30 or more averaged 2.44 and went over 44.6%. You can’t know the foul count before kick-off, but it fits what we see in leagues with a lot of whistling. The Greek Super League averages 29.5 fouls a match and scores 2.52 goals.
What a list of twelve matches looks like
Say tomorrow’s list has twelve matches. At the overall rates you’d expect about nine of them to go over 1.5, six over 2.5 and three or four over 3.5. Two or three will finish with one goal or none.
If your list is full of Bundesliga and Eredivisie matches, shift all of those numbers up. If it’s mostly Italian and Greek football, shift them down. The league mix tells you more about the day’s totals than any single match does.
Five rules for over/under tips
- Match the line to the league. Over 3.5 is a sensible bet in Germany and the Netherlands, and a long shot in Greece and Italy.
- Use 1.5 and 3.5 as the cautious lines. They’re easier to call than 2.5.
- Don’t treat 2.5 as a default. It sits on the most common totals, so it’s the hardest to read.
- Respect the draw at 0-0. One match in fourteen finishes goalless.
- Check team news. A missing striker or goalkeeper changes totals.
Common mistakes
The first is backing over 2.5 in a league that doesn’t score. Serie A’s baseline is 48.1% and Greece’s 48.4%.
The second is expecting a goal glut every time a big team plays. Totals of six or more happen in only 5.7% of matches.
The third is putting several overs on one slip. Three bets at 60% all land about 22% of the time.
Questions people ask
What does over 1.5 mean? Two goals or more.
What does under 3.5 mean? Three goals or fewer.
Which league has the most goals? The Bundesliga, at 3.23 per match in recent seasons.
Which has the fewest? The Greek Super League, at 2.52.
Is over 1.5 safe? It’s the likeliest of the three lines, and it still fails in about one match in four.
Does the first half count separately? Only if the bet says first half.
Where are today’s and the weekend’s tips? On the today page and the weekend page.
Tips are estimates, not promises. You must be 18 or over to bet, and a stake should be money you could lose without hardship.