Yellow Card Tips For Tomorrow: Does the Referee Matter?

The yellow card bet asks whether a match will have more or fewer bookings than a line like 3.5 or 4.5. Tomorrow’s card tips are in the table below, from an outside prediction provider and shown as published.

The biggest thing you can check before a card bet is the referee. Today’s page covers the leagues. This one is about the person holding the cards, and how far the numbers move depending on who is appointed. We use referee records from the Premier League, the EFL and the Scottish Premiership.

Today’s tips

Football Prediction Tips For Today 1×2 Predictions For Today
Over/Under 2.5 Predictions For Today Half-Time Today Goalscorers Predictions For Today
Double Chance Predictions For Today Corners Today Asian Handicap Predictions For Today

Gt1

CSD Municipal
Cobán Imperial

44
56
Over1–4
1 – 4
4.98
25°
–


Ni1

San Marcos
UNAN Managua

36
64
Over2–4
2 – 4
5.59
31°
–


Ar1

Argentinos Juniors
Racing Club

38
62
Over2–4
2 – 4
5.65
11°
–


Hn1

CD Motagua
Estrella Roja

51
49
Under1–2
1 – 2
4.38
28°
–


Co1

Jaguares de Córdoba
Once Caldas

40
60
Over3–3
3 – 3
5.41
30°
–


Pa1

Sporting SM FC
Alianza FC (PAN)

52
48
Under1–2
1 – 2
4.39
23°
–


Bo1

Oriente Petrolero
Univ de Vinto

41
59
Over3–2
3 – 2
5.27
29°
–


Sv1

CD FAS
Atlético Balboa

40
60
Over3–3
3 – 3
5.25
32°
–


LC

Philadelphia Union
Club Necaxa

45
55
Over2–5
2 – 5
5.03
29°
–


LC

Cruz Azul
New York City FC

51
49
Under2–2
2 – 2
4.41
33°
–


Cr1

CS Herediano
LD Alajuelense

34
66
Over3–3
3 – 3
5.78
24°
–


Cl1

Univ de Chile
Palestino

26
74
Over3–4
3 – 4
6.48
9°
–


Ec1

Guayaquil City
CS Emelec

52
48
Under2–2
2 – 2
4.31
34°
–





OFC

AS Vénus
Tiga Sport

40
60
Over5–0
5 – 0
5.39
25°
–


Gt2

CSD Sacachispas
Deportivo Mictlán

45
55
Over1–4
1 – 4
5.02
33°
–


LC

Nashville SC
Atlético San Luis

67
33
Under2–1
2 – 1
3.07
33°
–


LC

Chicago Fire
Santos Laguna

51
49
Under3–1
3 – 1
4.32
26°
–


Ni1

Matagalpa FC
Managua FC

60
40
Under1–3
1 – 3
3.49
–


Gt2

Huehuetecos
Cotzumalguapa

59
41
Under0–3
0 – 3
3.63
14°
–


LC

Austin FC
Puebla FC

48
52
Over2–3
2 – 3
4.75
36°
–


Co1

América de Cali
Atlético Nacional

42
58
Over2–3
2 – 3
5.04
16°
–


Hn1

Atlético Independiente
Atlético Choloma

58
42
Under1–2
1 – 2
4.13
17°
–


LC

San Diego
Club Tijuana

57
43
Under2–2
2 – 2
3.98
26°
–


LC

Club América
Portland Timbers

48
52
Over3–2
3 – 2
4.65
28°
–


OFC

Central Coast
Auckland City

69
31
Under1–2
1 – 2
2.98
25°
–


Ua1

Polissya Zhy
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv

55
45
Under1–2
1 – 2
4.48
27°
–


Am2

Andranik
Shirak-2

97
3
Under0–0
0 – 0
0.23
13°
–


Am2

Mika Yerevan
Pyunik-2

98
2
Under0–0
0 – 0
0.23
21°
–


By2

Gomel II
Shakhtyor Soligorsk

64
36
Under2–1
2 – 1
3.49
27°
–


By2

FK Minsk-2
Ostrovets FC

57
43
Under2–2
2 – 2
3.77
24°
–


Bg2

PFK Nesebar
Dobrudzha

62
38
Under0–4
0 – 4
3.65
23°
–


Ua1

Karpaty Lviv
LNZ Cherkasy

42
58
Over2–3
2 – 3
5.53
29°
–


By2

FK Orsha
FC Molodechno

73
27
Under2–1
2 – 1
2.52
23°
–


By2

FK Volna Pinsk
Uni Minsk

60
40
Under2–1
2 – 1
3.82
28°
–


By2

FK Smorgon
BATE II

58
42
Under2–2
2 – 2
4.14
23°
–


Sk2

MŠK Považská Bystrica
Zlate Moravce

46
54
Over2–3
2 – 3
4.52
30°
–


Am2

Urartu-2
Noah II

99
1
Under0–0
0 – 0
0.08
32°
–


Ro1

FC Botosani
Corvinul Hunedoara

48
52
Over3–2
3 – 2
4.63
29°
–


Lt1

Transinvest
Panevezys

46
54
Over2–3
2 – 3
4.90
23°
–


Bg1

Botev Vratsa
Slavia Sofia

56
44
Under2–1
2 – 1
3.92
34°
–


Si1

ND Mura
NK Radomlje

44
56
Over2–3
2 – 3
4.86
36°
–


Am1

Alashkert
BKMA Yerevan

45
55
Over3–2
3 – 2
4.76
33°
–


Ee2

Flora Tallinn II
Nomme Kalju II

70
30
Under1–1
1 – 1
2.98
14°
–


Lt2

Zalgiris-2
Kauno Zalgiris-2

60
40
Under1–2
1 – 2
4.04
23°
–


Cl3

Real San Joaquín
Santiago Morning

19
81
Over2–5
2 – 5
7.21
12°
–


Ru1

Fakel Voronezh
Akhmat Grozny

61
39
Under1–2
1 – 2
3.76
24°
–


Lv1

Rigas Futbola skola
Grobinas SC

67
33
Under1–1
1 – 1
3.31
26°
–


Lt1

FK Riteriai
Zalgiris

59
41
Under2–2
2 – 2
3.81
10°
–
Cancl.


Se1

Sirius IK
Brommapojkarna

67
33
Under1–2
1 – 2
3.09
21°
–


Se1

Vasteras SK FK
Djurgårdens

64
36
Under1–1
1 – 1
3.23
21°
–


Dk1

Silkeborg
Odense BK

73
27
Under1–1
1 – 1
2.86
20°
–


Bg2

Beroe Stara Zagora
Ludogorets II

51
49
Under2–2
2 – 2
4.45
20°
–


Se2

Norrby IF
Örebro SK

69
31
Under2–1
2 – 1
3.21
19°
–


Pt2

Lusitânia FC
FC Porto B

27
73
Over4–3
4 – 3
6.67
25°
–


Pt2

SL Benfica B
Leixões SC

29
71
Over2–3
2 – 3
6.24
28°
–


Pl2

Unia Skierniewice
Arka Gdynia

61
39
Under3–1
3 – 1
3.46
30°
–


No2

Moss FK
Odd BK

55
45
Under2–2
2 – 2
3.92
19°
–


KW2

Sahel (KUW)
Al Shamiya

43
57
Over3–2
3 – 2
5.17
39°
–


KW2

Khaitan SC
Al Jazira

64
36
Under2–1
2 – 1
3.24
39°
–


Fo1

Klaksvik
HB Torshavn

62
38
Under2–2
2 – 2
3.49
9°
–


Nl2

Jong PSV
Volendam

64
36
Under1–2
1 – 2
3.71
28°
–


Nl2

Jong AZ Alkmaar
FC Eindhoven

65
35
Under1–3
1 – 3
3.32
23°
–


Ar2

Gimnasia Jujuy
Tristán Suárez

48
52
Over3–2
3 – 2
4.80
11°
–


Ar2

All Boys
Central Norte Salta

43
57
Over3–3
3 – 3
5.44
12°
–


Ar4

Sacachispas
Deportivo Paraguayo

18
82
Over4–4
4 – 4
7.51
10°
–


Ar4

CA Fénix Pilar
Central Ballester

52
48
Under3–1
3 – 1
4.09
8°
–


Ar4

Sportivo Barracas
Claypole

27
73
Over3–4
3 – 4
6.33
10°
–


Ar4

Leones de Rosario
Deportivo Muñiz

52
48
Under3–1
3 – 1
4.05
10°
–


Fo1

NSÍ Runavík
Skala IF

51
49
Under2–2
2 – 2
4.37
10°
–


BrM

Athletic Club U20
Coimbra U20

39
61
Over3–2
3 – 2
5.80
–


Bg1

Botev Plovdiv
Spartak Varna

52
48
Under1–3
1 – 3
4.48
33°
–


Ro1

Cluj
Univ Cluj-Napoca

46
54
Over2–3
2 – 3
4.89
15°
–


Ro1

Sepsi OSK
FCSB

57
43
Under1–3
1 – 3
3.62
34°
–


Tr2

Pendikspor
Batman Petrolspor

59
41
Under3–1
3 – 1
3.60
32°
–


NIW

Craigavon City W
Greenisland W

94
6
Under1–0
1 – 0
0.69
13°
–


EFL

Plymouth Argyle
Exeter City

46
54
Over3–2
3 – 2
4.88
23°
–


Ec1

Tecnico
Mushuc Runa

39
61
Over4–1
4 – 1
5.64
16°
–


PtU

Academico Viseu U23
Estrela U23

46
54
Over3–2
3 – 2
4.82
31°
–


Pt1

Santa Clara
Nacional Madeira

39
61
Over2–3
2 – 3
5.75
23°
–


Is1

Fram Reykjavik
KR Reykjavik

47
53
Over2–3
2 – 3
4.94
12°
–


Is3

Vikingur Olafsvik
UMF Selfoss

64
36
Under1–2
1 – 2
3.26
11°
–


Ve1

Rayo Zuliano
Estudiantes FC

42
58
Over3–2
3 – 2
5.31
34°
–


Py2

Tacuary FBC
Guaireña FC

55
45
Under2–1
2 – 1
4.35
14°
–


Co1

Rionegro Águilas
Llaneros FC (COL)

22
78
Over3–4
3 – 4
6.81
23°
–


BrW

Botafogo W
Fluminense W

49
51
Over2–3
2 – 3
4.74
28°
–
Postp.


Ec1

Libertad FC (ECU)
Univ Católica Quito

52
48
Under2–2
2 – 2
4.33
21°
–


Py1

Libertad
Sportivo Trinidense

47
53
Over2–3
2 – 3
4.60
16°
–


Ar1

CA Banfield
Belgrano Córdoba

41
59
Over2–4
2 – 4
5.40
9°
–


Uy1

CD Maldonado
Racing Club (URU)

32
68
Over3–2
3 – 2
5.81
7°
–


Py2

CA Tembetary
General Caballero JLM

58
42
Under1–2
1 – 2
3.77
12°
–


Ve1

Caracas
Deportivo La Guaira

46
54
Over3–2
3 – 2
4.51
28°
–


Br2

Goiás
Londrina

40
60
Over2–3
2 – 3
5.90
36°
–


BrC

Marília SP
Bandeirante SP

62
38
Under2–2
2 – 2
3.35
25°
–

Weekend tips

Weekend Yellow Card Tips Weekend Corner Tips Weekend Half-Time Tips
Weekend Football Weekend Over/Under 2.5 Weekend HT/FT
Weekend Double Chance Weekend Asian Handicap Weekend Both Teams To Score

How card bets are settled

Plain yellow card lines count only yellows, and bookmakers differ on how they treat a second yellow that leads to a red. Total cards and booking points bets count reds as well, often one card or two for a red and 10 or 25 points. Cards shown to substitutes and coaches may count too. A card shown after the final whistle is normally ignored. Always read the rules on your slip.

How far referees differ

We looked at referees who took charge of at least 50 matches in our data. In the Premier League that’s 17 referees and 1,577 matches. Their yellow card averages ran from 3.39 to 4.43, against a league average of 3.79. The strictest gave more than a card a match more than the most lenient.

Competition Referees Matches Lowest average Highest average League average
Premier League 17 1,577 3.39 4.43 3.79
EFL 60 6,728 2.92 4.70 3.70
Scottish Premiership 11 800 3.07 4.42 3.77

The EFL has the widest spread. Across its 60 referees the averages ran from 2.92 to 4.70, which is almost two cards a match between the lowest and the highest.

Is it really the referee?

Chance matters when the sample is about a hundred matches. The standard spread in a match’s yellow card count is about 2.2, so a referee’s average over 100 matches moves by roughly 0.2 either way from luck. A gap of one card or more is far bigger than that. In other words, a lot of the difference is real.

The over 4.5 line shows it clearly. In the Premier League, over 4.5 landed in 25.4% of one referee’s matches and 45.9% of another’s. In the EFL the range was 15.0% to 54.0%.

Red cards differ too

Reds a match ran from 0.047 to 0.173 in the Premier League and from 0.047 to 0.271 in the EFL. That’s a factor of three to six between the most and least likely to send a player off, though these samples are smaller and more affected by chance than the yellow numbers.

Fouls per card

How many fouls it takes to earn a yellow varies by league, and by home and away. Across the 18 leagues, away teams collected a yellow every 5.6 fouls and home teams every 6.2. The Primeira Liga needed only 5.29 fouls per yellow in the whole league and Ligue 2 needed 7.30.

So the line you see for a match already includes the league’s attitude. Referees move it on top of that.

Using a referee’s record

Suppose the line is over 4.5 yellow cards. With one Premier League referee, that landed in 25.4% of matches. With another it landed in 45.9%. The line is the same, the teams might be too, and the bet is very different.

You don’t need a spreadsheet for this. Find the referee’s average for the season and compare it with the league average. If it’s half a card above, a higher line is reasonable. If it’s half a card below, be wary of overs. Then look at the match: a pair of teams with plenty of fouls adds to it.

Five rules for card tips

  1. Check the referee. In many leagues appointments are announced before the match, and a lenient referee can be a card lower than a strict one.
  2. Use a larger sample. One match tells you little. Fifty or more shows a pattern.
  3. Be careful with red-card rates. The samples are small, and one sending-off swings them.
  4. Know your bet. A cards bet and a booking points bet are very different if a red appears.
  5. Check the match. A derby or a relegation game can change a referee’s approach, and we don’t have data on that.

Common mistakes

The first is setting a card line from the two teams’ fouls alone. The referee’s average moves it by about half a card either way.

The second is trusting a small sample. A referee with 20 matches isn’t a record.

The third is ignoring the league. The Primeira Liga is more than two cards a match above the Eredivisie.

Questions people ask

How much do referees differ? In the Premier League by more than a yellow card per match between the strictest and most lenient.

Which competition has the biggest spread? The EFL, from 2.92 to 4.70.

Do referees give more cards to away teams? Away teams commit slightly more fouls, 12.3 a match against 12.0, and get a card every 5.6 fouls against 6.2 for home teams.

Is over 4.5 hard to predict? In the Premier League it landed in between 25% and 46% of matches depending on the referee.

Are referees announced in advance? In many leagues the appointments are published a few days before the match, but it depends on the competition.

Where are today’s and the weekend’s tips? On the today page and the weekend page.

Tips are estimates and not promises. You must be 18 or over to bet, and a stake should be money you can afford to lose.