Serie A has twenty clubs and 380 matches a season. In our data it’s one of the lowest scoring of the big five leagues (only La Liga is lower), and it has the smallest home advantage of all 18 leagues. That makes it a different league to bet on, and this page sets out what’s different. The table below holds the league’s tips from an outside prediction provider, shown as published.
The figures are from 1,900 Serie A matches between 2021/22 and 2025/26.
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More Predictions
A low-scoring league
The average Serie A match had 2.61 goals. Over 2.5 landed in 48.9% of matches and over 3.5 in 26.3%. About one match in fourteen (7.2%) ended 0-0, against 5.1% in the Bundesliga and 5.2% in the Premier League.
| Measure | Serie A |
|---|---|
| Goals a match | 2.61 |
| Over 2.5 | 48.9% |
| Over 3.5 | 26.3% |
| Both teams scored | 51.4% |
| Goalless draws | 7.2% |
| Home win | 40.4% |
| Draw | 27.2% |
| Away win | 32.4% |
Home advantage is small
Home teams won 40.4% of Serie A matches, the lowest rate among the 18 leagues, with Serie B (40.5%) almost level. Away teams won 32.4%. That shows in the double chance numbers. Home win or draw (1X) landed 67.6% of the time, the lowest of any league, while away win or draw (X2) landed 59.6%, the highest.
If you’re looking for a cover on an away team, Serie A is the league where it’s easiest. It’s still not generous: more than four times in ten, X2 fails.
Draws
Serie A drew 27.2% of its matches. The second division, Serie B, drew more than any other league we track at 32.0%, and its average match had only 2.47 goals.
The draw changes how you read the half-time lines too. The break was level in 40.9% of matches, with a goalless half in 30.1%. Only 31.7% of first halves had a home lead and 27.4% an away lead, so away teams were ahead at the break more often than in most leagues.
BTTS is volatile
BTTS landed in 51.4% of matches overall, but it moved a lot from season to season: 57%, 50%, 52%, 52% and then 45% in the latest.
That’s a 12-point range, against 8 in La Liga and 5 in the Bundesliga. A Serie A BTTS figure from last year may not describe this year.
Home teams failed to score in 25.2% of matches and away teams in 30.6%.
Shots and results
Shots on target track the winner in Italy as they do elsewhere. The side with more shots on target won 59.2% of matches, drew 26.1% and lost 14.7%. Italian matches had 8.30 shots on target on average, and 31.4% of them became goals, which sits near the 18-league average of 31.6%. So finishing doesn’t explain the low scoring. There are fewer shots on target than in Germany (9.55) or the Netherlands (9.74).
Corners and cards
Serie A has the fewest corners of the big leagues, at 9.35 a match. Over 9.5 landed in 46.2% and over 10.5 in 34.4%. That makes the over 9.5 an under-50% line in this league, whereas it’s above 50% in England and Scotland.
Cards sit in the middle. Yellows averaged 4.21 a match, and over 3.5 landed in 61.9%. A red appeared in 16.2% of matches. It takes 5.96 fouls to earn a yellow, more than in the Premier League (5.67) or La Liga (5.38), so referees are a little slower to book.
Half-time and full-time
The most common result was a home lead and a home win at 23.7%, the lowest of the major leagues. Level at the break and level at full time was 15.8%. Turnarounds happened in 5.26% of matches, about one in nineteen.
Title races
The 2024/25 title was decided by a point. Napoli finished on 82 and Inter on 81, with Atalanta third on 74.
In 2025/26 Inter finished top with 87, eleven ahead of Napoli on 76, and Roma were third on 73. The tables come from the results in our data.
Five rules for Serie A tips
- Start from the draw. At 27.2% it’s more likely than in the Premier League or Bundesliga.
- Be careful with overs. Over 2.5 starts below 50%.
- Use X2 sooner than elsewhere. The away cover lands most often here.
- Don’t trust last season’s BTTS. It moved by 12 points.
- Remember the corners. 9.35 is the lowest of the five biggest leagues.
Common mistakes
The first is backing the home favourite to win by default. Home wins are rarer here than in almost any other league.
The second is carrying English or German totals over to Italy. Over 2.5 landed 56.6% in England and 61.0% in Germany, and 48.9% in Italy.
The third is ignoring Serie B, where draws reach 32.0% of matches.
Questions people ask
How many goals in a Serie A match? 2.61 on average.
How often does Serie A end in a draw? 27.2% of matches.
Is Serie A low scoring? Yes, among the lowest of the major leagues.
How many teams are in Serie A? Twenty.
How many yellow cards? 4.21 a match on average.
Where are other leagues? See La Liga and Ligue 1.
Tips are estimates, not promises. You must be 18 or over to bet, and a stake should be money you can afford to lose.