Chinese Super League Predictions: Favourites Beat Their Prices

The Chinese Super League has been higher scoring in recent seasons than at the start of our data, and its big favourites have been more reliable than in Europe. A favourite priced at 65% or better has won more than five matches in six. The table below holds the league’s tips from an outside prediction provider, shown as published.

The figures use 1,430 matches since the start of 2021, from public results files. They cover goals and results, not corners or cards.

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Cn1

Shandong Luneng
Qingdao Jonoon

662014
12–1
2 – 1
3.08
21°
7/20

7/20
4/1
101/20
no
no
no


Cn1

Wuhan Three Towns
Shanghai SIPG

273142
21–2
1 – 2
3.00
22°
9/10

5/2
53/20
9/10
no
no
no


Cn1

Qingdao West Coast
Chongqing Tongliang

354619
X1–1
1 – 1
1.88
27°
9/4

6/5
9/4
41/20
no
no
no

0.22

Cn1

Shenyang City
Sichuan FC

412534
12–1
2 – 1
2.61
22°
23/20

23/20
27/10
21/10
no
no
no


Cn1

Tianjin Teda
Beijing Guoan

183844
21–2
1 – 2
3.39
20°
11/10

12/5
13/5
11/10
no
no
no


Cn1

Zhejiang FC
Chengdu Qianbao

234136
X1–1
1 – 1
2.20
26°
29/10

9/5
29/10
13/10
no
no
no

0.21

Cn1

Yunnan Yukun
Dalian Zhixing

393526
13–1
3 – 1
3.26
20°
11/10

11/10
14/5
43/20
no
no
no


Cn1

Shanghai Shenhua
Henan Jianye

294031
X2–2
2 – 2
2.55
26°
29/10

9/10
29/10
13/5
no
no
no

0.19
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Cn2

Yanbian Fude
Dalian Kuncheng

533611
12–0
2 – 0
2.43
22°
–

–
–
–



Cn2

Shaanxi Union
Changchun YaTai

363827
X2–2
2 – 2
3.25
25°
–

–
–
–



Cn2

Wuxi Wugou
Guangdong GZ-Power

232849
20–1
0 – 1
1.17
25°
–

–
–
–



Cn2

Guangxi Hengchen
Meizhou Wuhua

571826
13–1
3 – 1
3.38
23°
–

–
–
–



Cn2

Suzhou Dongwu
Nantong Zhiyun

143551
20–1
0 – 1
1.88
21°
–

–
–
–



Cn2

Shenzhen Juniors
Shanghai Jiading

362638
20–1
0 – 1
1.83
32°
–

–
–
–



Cn2

Nanjing Fengfan
Heilongjiang Lava

324226
X2–2
2 – 2
3.44
23°
–

–
–
–



Cn2

Dongguan United
Hebei KungFu

234731
X1–1
1 – 1
2.10
–

–
–
–


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Cn3

Dalian Kewei
Tai’an Tiankuang

283042
21–2
1 – 2
3.30
–

–
–
–



Cn3

Rizhao Yuqi
Shanghai Port II

332938
21–2
1 – 2
2.50
–

–
–
–



Cn3

Shanghai Second
Nantong Haimen

234632
X2–2
2 – 2
3.17
–

–
–
–



Cn3

Beijing BIT FC
Changchun Xidu

313534
X0–0
0 – 0
1.58
–

–
–
–



Cn3

Qingdao Red Lions
Xi’an Ronghai

362241
22–3
2 – 3
3.90
–

–
–
–



Cn3

Shandong Taishan II
Dalian Yingbo B

342739
20–1
0 – 1
1.90
–

–
–
–



Cn3

Shangyu Pterosaur
Guangzhou Dandelion

324424
X0–0
0 – 0
1.00
–

–
–
–



Cn3

Guangdong Mingtu
Wuhan Three Towns B

343927
X1–1
1 – 1
2.13
–

–
–
–



Cn3

Guizhou Zhicheng
Chengdu Rongcheng B

602317
11–0
1 – 0
2.08
–

–
–
–



Cn3

Hubei Chufeng Heli
Langfang Glory City

284725
X1–1
1 – 1
2.10
–

–
–
–



Cn3

Jiangxi Liansheng
Xiamen Feilu

343332
12–1
2 – 1
2.50
–

–
–
–



Cn3

Yichun Grand Tiger
Shenzhen 2028

221959
20–2
0 – 2
2.33
–

–
–
–


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CnC

Dalian Kewei
Beijing Guoan

293338
20–2
0 – 2
2.44
27°
2/5

6/1
15/4
2/5
no
no
no

FT
1 – 2(0 – 1)

CnC

Shanghai SIPG
Sichuan FC

343630
X2–2
2 – 2
3.27
29°
7/2

3/5
7/2
4/1
no
no
no

Pen.
FT
4 – 3

1 – 1(1 – 0)

0.18

CnC

Wuhan Three Towns
Shandong Luneng

192655
20–3
0 – 3
3.09
33°
2/5

6/1
4/1
2/5
no
no
no

Pen.
FT
3 – 4

1 – 1(1 – 0)


CnC

Chongqing Tongliang
Qingdao West Coast

254827
X1–1
1 – 1
2.23
33°
5/2

1/1
5/2
13/5
no
no
no

FT
2 – 0(1 – 0)
0.27

CnC

Shanghai Shenhua
Qingdao Jonoon

414415
X2–2
2 – 2
2.85
29°
13/2

1/10
13/2
14/1
no
no
no

FT
4 – 1(4 – 1)
0.35

CnC

Yunnan Yukun
Chengdu Qianbao

273241
21–2
1 – 2
2.91
23°
13/20

33/10
7/2
13/20
no
no
no

Pen.
FT
3 – 2

3 – 3(2 – 2)


CnC

Henan Jianye
Dalian Zhixing

412435
14–1
4 – 1
3.01
37°
17/20

17/20
11/4
11/4
no
no
no

Pen.
FT
5 – 6

1 – 1(1 – 1)


CnC

Rizhao Yuqi
Shaanxi Union

273241
20–2
0 – 2
1.98
26°
3/5

6/1
5/2
3/5
no
no
no

FT
2 – 0(0 – 0)
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CnS

Shanghai SIPG
Beijing Guoan

321652
21–3
1 – 3
3.88
12°
8/5

5/4
11/4
8/5
no
no
no

FT
0 – 2(0 – 1)
0.22
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CnW

Changchun Dazhong Zh. W
Sichuan Jiannanchun W

504110
11–0
1 – 0
1.85
19°
–

–
–
–


FT
1 – 2(0 – 1)

CnW

Guangdong Haiyin W
Shanghai SVT W

103456
20–2
0 – 2
2.07
25°
–

–
–
–


FT
2 – 1(1 – 0)

CnW

Jiangsu Huatai W
Wuhan W

313732
X1–1
1 – 1
2.09
25°
–

–
–
–


FT
0 – 1(0 – 1)

CnW

Liaoning W
Guangxi Pingguo W

522721
12–0
2 – 0
0.50
20°
–

–
–
–


FT
2 – 1(0 – 0)

CnW

Shaanxi W
Zhejiang Hangzhou W

382537
11–0
1 – 0
1.42
18°
–

–
–
–


FT
1 – 1(1 – 1)

CnW

Shandong Huangming W
Beijing Baxy W

132265
20–1
0 – 1
2.11
28°
–

–
–
–


FT
1 – 1(0 – 0)

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The league in numbers

Measure China Average of 18 European leagues
Goals a match 2.94 2.69
Over 2.5 goals 55.7% 50.7%
Over 3.5 goals 34.1% 29.2%
Both teams scored 56.0% 52.7%
Goalless draws 6.1% about 7%
Home win 44.8% 43.5%
Draw 24.9% 26.2%

Matches averaged 2.94 goals, and over 2.5 landed in 55.7%. BTTS landed in 56.0%.

Goals have risen

The first season in our data, 2021, averaged only 2.51 goals across 180 matches. Since then the average has run 2.86, 2.77, 3.12 and 3.21, and the current season has 3.11 across 224 matches.

That’s about three quarters of a goal between the lowest and highest seasons. The last three seasons have all been at or above 3.1. A line based on the early years would be well too low.

Strong favourites win

The most striking figure in the Chinese data is how reliable heavy favourites have been:

Favourite’s chance at the price Matches Favourite won
Under 45% 462 36.4%
45% to 55% 329 52.0%
55% to 65% 286 60.1%
65% or more 349 84.0%

Favourites at 65% or more won 84.0% of 349 matches, against about 77% for European favourites at the same price. The sample is large enough to take seriously. Of 1,426 matches with prices, 349 had a favourite at 65% or more, nearly a quarter (24.5%).

The middle bands were close to their prices. So it’s the top of the range where China differs, and 84.0% is well above the 65% where that band starts.

Home advantage

Home teams won 44.8% of matches and away teams 30.3%. The home side scored 1.64 goals a match and the visitors 1.30. The home side failed to score in 21.4% of matches and the visitors in 28.7%.

Season by season, the home win rate ran 44.4%, 42.8%, 44.2%, 46.2%, 46.7% and 44.6%. It has been steady, between 43% and 47%.

Draws

Draws were 24.9% of matches. They moved from season to season, running 27.8%, 20.3%, 27.9%, 22.9%, 25.8% and 26.8%.

The 2022 season, with 306 matches, had the fewest draws at 20.3%.

Covers follow from the results. Home win or draw landed in 69.7% of matches, away win or draw in 55.2% and either team winning in 75.1%.

Both teams scoring

BTTS landed in 56.0%. The home side scored in 78.6% of matches and the away side in 71.3%, and multiplying gives 56.0%, exactly the actual rate. The rate is above the European average because both sides score more than elsewhere.

Scorelines

1-1 was the commonest score at 12.3%, then 2-1 (8.9%), 1-0 (8.7%), 0-1 (7.2%) and 1-2 (6.5%). A 0-0 draw happened in 6.1% of matches.

A list of ten

Take ten Chinese matches and about two or three of them will have a favourite priced at 65% or more. At 84.0%, those favourites would be expected to win about five matches in six, and fail to win roughly one in six.

The other seven or so are closer matches. A favourite at 55% to 65% wins about six times in ten, and one at 45% to 55% about half the time.

The figure to remember is the 16% of strong favourites that didn’t win. Over hundreds of matches the prices haven’t been too short, but any single match can still go wrong.

Corners and cards

We don’t have corner or card figures for China. The results file has goals and prices only. If you bet on those lines, use the general rules on our corner and card pages and check the referee.

Five rules for Chinese tips

  1. Trust the heavy favourites. At 65% or more they won 84.0%.
  2. Update the goals line. The league has averaged about 3.1 recently.
  3. Don’t overpay for a middle favourite. At 45% to 55%, the favourite won 52.0%.
  4. Expect both teams to score. BTTS starts at 56.0%.
  5. Skip lines we can’t measure. Corners and cards aren’t covered.

Common mistakes

The first is using early-year goal averages. 2021 was far below the later seasons.

The second is assuming a very short price is always poor value. In China the strong favourites have won more often than their prices implied.

The third is combining a lot of picks anyway. Even at 84%, three favourites all win about 59% of the time.

Questions people ask

How many goals in a Super League match? 2.94 since 2021, and about 3.1 recently.

How often do both teams score? 56.0%.

Are favourites reliable in China? At 65% or more, they won 84.0% of the time.

Is it a high-scoring league? Above the European average.

How often are matches drawn? 24.9%.

Why are Chinese favourites so reliable? Our data shows the result but not the reason, so we don’t offer one.

Is the home side strong in China? About average: 44.8% home wins.

Where are other leagues? See Japan and the Asia page.

Tips are estimates, not promises. You must be 18 or over to bet, and a stake should be money you can do without.