Double chance covers two of the three results. 1X wins on a home win or a draw. X2 wins on a draw or an away win. 12 wins unless the match is drawn. The table below carries tomorrow’s double chance tips from an outside prediction provider, shown as published.
Today’s page looks at how the covers differ by league and by the favourite’s strength. This one is about 12, the cover people think of as the “no draw” bet, and about when covering the favourite works and when the cover isn’t worth much. The figures come from 33,364 league matches.
Today’s tips
Weekend tips
| Weekend Football | Weekend Over/Under 2.5 | Weekend HT/FT |
| Weekend Double Chance | Weekend Asian Handicap | Weekend Both Teams To Score |
| Weekend 1X2 | Weekend Goalscorer Tips | Weekend Yellow Card Tips |
How double chance is settled
The result after 90 minutes plus added time decides it, and extra time doesn’t count. Postponed matches are normally void. Each cover loses on exactly one of the three results: 1X on an away win, X2 on a home win, and 12 on a draw.
12 is a bet on goals
12 loses only when there’s a draw, so the question is how likely a draw is. And the draw rate depends heavily on how many goals are expected. We split matches by the closing chance of over 2.5 goals:
| Closing over 2.5 chance | Draws | 12 landed |
|---|---|---|
| Under 35% | 32.5% | 67.5% |
| 35% to 42% | 31.5% | 68.5% |
| 42% to 50% | 27.7% | 72.3% |
| 50% to 58% | 25.2% | 74.8% |
| 58% to 66% | 21.1% | 78.9% |
| 66% or more | 14.4% | 85.6% |
The more goals expected, the safer 12 becomes. In a match priced for plenty of goals it landed 85.6% of the time. In a low-scoring match it landed 67.5%, eighteen points lower. Low-scoring matches draw, and 1-1 and 0-0 cover most of the draws that happen.
Teams that are evenly matched add to it. When the closing prices for a home and an away win were within five points of each other, 29.7% of matches were drawn, against 17.0% when the gap was 45 points or more.
Covering the favourite
Covering the favourite is the other main use. We found the favourite from the closing price and counted how often “favourite or draw” landed:
| Favourite’s chance at the price | Favourite or draw |
|---|---|
| Under 40% | 68.0% |
| 40% to 45% | 72.4% |
| 45% to 55% | 77.8% |
| 55% to 65% | 84.4% |
| 65% to 75% | 90.5% |
| 75% or more | 95.2% |
Home and away favourites behave alike once the price is the same. At 45% to 55%, the cover landed 77.9% for home favourites and 77.4% for away favourites.
The other side of the coin, underdog or draw, lands 38.5% of the time when the favourite is priced at 55% to 65%, 27.2% at 65% to 75% and 16.3% above that. Backing the underdog’s cover is a bet against heavy favourites, and the figures show how rarely it comes in.
Reading tomorrow’s list
Start by splitting the matches by how many goals the teams are expected to produce. For the high-scoring ones, 12 is a reasonable cover, and the draw is the only thing to worry about. For the low-scoring ones, switch to the favourite’s cover if there’s a clear favourite, and leave the match alone if there isn’t.
Then check the favourite’s strength. A cover on a 65% favourite lands about nine matches in ten. A cover on a 40% favourite lands about seven in ten, which isn’t much better than the plain 1X rate of 69.6%.
The best covers are on strong favourites in matches with plenty of goals, and they pay the least. That’s the trade, and the numbers show it clearly.
Five rules for double chance tips
- Check the goals before using 12. In a low-scoring match it’s much weaker.
- Don’t cover a match with no favourite. Under 45%, the cover lands about 68% to 72% of the time.
- Treat home and away favourites the same. At the same price, they cover equally often.
- Be careful with short prices. A 95% cover pays little and still fails one match in twenty.
- Check team news. A favourite missing its main players isn’t the one in the price.
Common mistakes
The first is using 12 in a defensive league without checking the draw rate. Serie B had 32.0% draws, so 12 landed only 68.0% of the time there.
The second is treating a double chance as safe because it covers two results. The result you’ve left out happens in 26% of matches for 12, 30% for 1X and 43% for X2.
The third is combining many covers. Each leg has to land, and the chances multiply.
Questions people ask
What does 12 mean in double chance? The home team or the away team wins. Only a draw loses.
Is 12 the same as draw no bet? No. With draw no bet you pick one team and get your stake back on a draw. 12 covers both teams and loses on a draw.
When is 12 safest? In matches with lots of goals expected. At a closing over 2.5 chance of 66% or more, it landed 85.6% of the time.
Is X2 harder than 1X? Yes. X2 landed 56.5% of the time and 1X 69.6%.
How often does a heavy favourite cover? 95.2% at a price of 75% or more.
Where are today’s and the weekend’s tips? On the today page and the weekend page.
Tips are estimates, not promises. You must be 18 or over to bet, and a stake should be money you can afford to lose.