An Asian handicap starts one team a goal or more behind, or ahead, so the match is closer to even. The bigger the favourite, the bigger the line, and a line like -1 or -1.5 asks for more than a plain win. The table below has the weekend’s handicap tips from an outside prediction provider, shown as published.
Weekend lists have the biggest favourites of the week, so large lines are common. This page is about the thing a large line really asks for: winning by enough goals. We look at how often matches are won by one, two or three goals, and what shots on target say about the size of a win, using 33,323 matches.
Today’s tips
Ar2
Ferrocarril Midland
Deportivo Maipú
Kz1
FK Aktobe
FK Atyrau
Ca1
Forge FC
Vancouver FC
Bo1
Real Tomayapo
CDT Real Oruro
Br2
Ceará SC
Ponte Preta
LC
Columbus Crew
Pachuca CF
LC
Charlotte FC
Club Atlas
Bg2
Marek
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
Ec1
LDU
Ind del Valle
Ua2
Niva Ternopil
UCSA
Ru4
FK Astrakhan
PSK Dinskaya
LC
FC Cincinnati
UNAM Pumas
AtN
Wallern / Marienkirchen
Kuchl
Cl1
Universidad Católica
Cobresal
Co2
Deportes Quindío
Cortuluá
Cl2
Deportes Santa Cruz
Puerto Montt
Nz2
Waterside Karori
Napier City Rovers
Ar1
Independiente Rivadavia
Estudiantes Río Cuarto
Mx2
Alacranes Durango
Piratas
Mx2
Tepatitlán de Morelos
Atletico La Paz
Sv1
Isidro Metapán
CD Águila
Ni1
Real Estelí
CD Walter Ferretti
Ar3
Juventud Antoniana
Alvarado Mar del Plata
LC
Tigres UANL
Minnesota United
0 – 0(0 – 0)
MxW
Atlas W
Pachuca W
Pe1
Universitario
Sporting Cristal
Pa1
San Francisco FC
Herrera FC
Cr1
CS Cartaginés
Sporting (CRC)
Gt1
Malacateco
Club Xelajú MC
Nz2
Wanaka
Selwyn United
Nz2
Miramar
FC Western
LC
Vancouver Whitecaps
FC Juárez
Nz2
Ferrymead Bays
Nomads United
Nz2
Eastern Suburbs (NZL)
Fencibles United
Nz2
Auckland United
Tauranga City United
Nz2
Wellington Phoenix (R)
Wellington Olympic
Nz2
Petone
Western Suburbs
Nz2
Island Bay United
Upper Hutt City
AuT
South Hobart
Riverside Olympic
Tomorrow and the weekend
How the lines settle
At -0.5 your team has to win. At -1 a win by two or more wins, a win by exactly one returns your stake, and a draw or defeat loses. At -1.5 a win by two or more wins and everything else loses. At -2 a win by three or more wins, a two-goal win is a refund, and anything less loses. Quarter lines split your stake across the two nearest lines. Postponed matches are normally void, and bookmakers differ on abandoned ones.
How big are the wins?
Here’s how every match in our data ended:
| Result | Matches | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Draw | 8,720 | 26.2% |
| Won by one goal | 13,025 | 39.1% |
| Won by two goals | 6,759 | 20.3% |
| Won by three or more | 4,819 | 14.5% |
A win by exactly one goal is the single most common non-draw result. Winning by two or more happened in 34.7% of matches, and by three or more in 14.5%.
That’s the central fact for handicap betting. A team at -1 needs a win by two to profit, and a one-goal win only returns the stake. A team at -1.5 needs the same two-goal win, and it fails on every one-goal win and every draw.
What the big lines did
Across 14,607 matches with a handicap line, the home side won, lost or was refunded like this:
| Home line | Matches | Won | Lost | Refunded |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -2 | 159 | 39.6% | 40.3% | 20.1% |
| -1.5 | 359 | 45.1% | 54.9% | 0% |
| -1 | 826 | 34.6% | 37.7% | 27.7% |
| -0.75 | 1,513 | 44.0% | 41.8% | 14.2% |
Bookmakers set the line so that both sides have close to an even chance, and the results show it. A home team giving 1.5 goals won the bet 45.1% of the time. Nobody gets a free edge from picking the favourite or the underdog on a big line.
Shots on target and the size of a win
During a match, shots on target tell you how big a win is likely to be. We grouped matches by the lead in shots on target for the stronger side:
| Shots on target lead | Matches | Won | Won by 2 or more | Won by 3 or more |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 to 2 | 13,854 | 46.2% | 19.0% | 5.9% |
| 3 to 4 | 8,782 | 61.7% | 33.2% | 13.4% |
| 5 to 6 | 4,271 | 76.0% | 51.0% | 27.4% |
| 7 to 8 | 1,756 | 84.5% | 64.7% | 41.7% |
| 9 or more | 830 | 89.5% | 76.7% | 59.0% |
A team that has at least five more shots on target than its opponent wins by two or more in about half of matches. This is a post-match statistic, so you can’t use it before kick-off, but it explains why teams that dominate the shots win handicap bets: territory turns into goals.
Reading a weekend list
Weekend lists can have a dozen lines of -1 or more. Sort them by what each needs. A line of -0.75 needs a win and is half-refunded at one goal. A line of -1.25 needs a win by two to pay in full. A line of -2 needs three.
If a list shows you a team at -2, ask how often a team won by three or more at all. In our data it was 14.5% of matches, and 59.0% for sides with nine or more shots on target in front. Nothing about the weekend changes that, so the line is a statement about how dominant the team has to be.
Five rules for handicap tips
- Count the goals your line needs. At -1.5 it’s two. At -2 it’s three.
- Remember one-goal wins. They’re the most common win, and they lose at -1.5.
- Prefer lines with refunds if you’re cautious. At -1 and 0, between 28% and 30% of bets were returned.
- Don’t expect favourites to cover. On the big lines in our data, the home side won the bet less than half the time.
- Keep stakes small on quarter lines. You can win half and lose half in one bet.
Common mistakes
The first is backing a heavy favourite at -1.5 because it “should win easily”. A 1-0 or 2-1 win fails.
The second is treating the draw and the one-goal win as minor risks on a big line. At -1, the bet lost in 37.7% of matches and was refunded in 27.7%, so it paid out in only 34.6%.
The third is judging a team by its last result margin. One 4-0 is a small sample.
Questions people ask
What does -1.5 mean? The team must win by two goals or more.
What happens if a -1 team wins by one? Your stake is returned.
How often is a match won by two or more? 34.7% of matches in our data.
What about by three or more? 14.5%.
What’s the difference between -1.5 and -2? At -1.5 a two-goal win wins. At -2 it only returns your stake.
Where are today’s and tomorrow’s tips? On the today page and the tomorrow page.
Tips are estimates, not promises. You must be 18 or over to bet, and a stake should be money you can do without.