1X2 Tips For Tomorrow: Home Advantage in the Numbers

1X2 is the three-way match result: 1 for a home win, X for a draw and 2 for an away win. Your pick wins if the match ends that way after 90 minutes. Tomorrow’s tips are in the table below, from an outside prediction provider and shown as published.

Today’s page covers how often favourites win. This one is about the part of 1X2 that catches people out, the draw, and about newly promoted teams, who are easy to over- or under-rate. The figures come from 33,335 league matches.

Today’s tips

1×2 Predictions For Today Over/Under 2.5 Predictions For Today Half-Time Today
Goalscorers Predictions For Today Double Chance Predictions For Today Corners Today
Asian Handicap Predictions For Today Both Teams To Score Predictions For Today Yellow Cards Today

Gt1

CSD Municipal
Cobán Imperial

424413
X1–1
1 – 1
2.35
25°
3/1

2/5
3/1
21/4
no
no
no

–

–
–
–
2nd
9th

CSD Municipal are undefeated in their last 14 home matches in the Liga Nacional.


Ni1

San Marcos
UNAN Managua

283933
X1–1
1 – 1
1.50
31°
12/5

7/4
12/5
23/20
no
no
no

–

–
–
–
8th
5th

UNAN Managua have seen under 2.5 goals in each of their last 3 Primera Division matches.


Co1

Jaguares de Córdoba
Once Caldas

263440
21–2
1 – 2
2.73
30°
19/20

61/20
9/4
19/20
no
no
down

–

–
–
–
16th
5th

Jaguares de Córdoba have lost their last 3 Primera A matches.


Ar1

Argentinos Juniors
Racing Club

473023
11–0
1 – 0
1.86
11°
6/5

6/5
7/4
3/1
no
no
no

–

–
–
–
3rd
8th

Argentinos Juniors have won their last 3 home matches against Racing Club in Liga Profesional.


Hn1

CD Motagua
Estrella Roja

453124
11–0
1 – 0
1.56
28°
3/10

3/10
17/4
13/2
down
no
up

–

–
–
–
1st
7th

CD Motagua are undefeated at half-time in their last 12 Liga Nacional matches.


Pa1

Sporting SM FC
Alianza FC (PAN)

193843
20–1
0 – 1
2.35
23°
1/2

19/4
13/5
1/2
no
no
no

–

–
–
–
6th
2nd

Alianza FC have lost their last 3 away matches against Sporting SM FC in the Football League.


Bo1

Oriente Petrolero
Univ de Vinto

543214
12–0
2 – 0
2.40
29°
11/20

11/20
3/1
71/20
no
no
no

–

–
–
–
8th
15th

Univ de Vinto have lost their last 3 away matches in the División Profesional.


Sv1

CD FAS
Atlético Balboa

57349
13–1
3 – 1
3.78
32°
2/5

2/5
61/20
13/2
no
no
no

–

–
–
–
2nd
10th

CD FAS are undefeated in 27 of their last 30 Primera Division matches.


LC

Philadelphia Union
Club Necaxa

373924
X2–2
2 – 2
3.16
29°
27/10

7/10
27/10
3/1
no
no
no

–

–
–
–
14th
14th

Club Necaxa’s last 3 Leagues Cup matches have all featured over 2.5 goals.


LC

Cruz Azul
New York City FC

264529
X2–2
2 – 2
3.24
33°
12/5

5/4
12/5
8/5
no
no
no

–

–
–
–
4th
8th


Cr1

CS Herediano
LD Alajuelense

243937
X1–1
1 – 1
2.40
24°
21/10

5/4
21/10
7/4
no
no
no

–

–
–
–
6th
3rd

CS Herediano remain undefeated in their last 6 home matches in the Primera División.


Cl1

Univ de Chile
Palestino

403327
12–1
2 – 1
2.55
9°
4/5

4/5
5/2
16/5
no
no
no

–

–
–
–
3rd
4th

Univ de Chile have scored at least two goals in each of their last 5 Primera Division matches.


Ec1

Guayaquil City
CS Emelec

353926
X1–1
1 – 1
2.30
34°
2/1

7/4
2/1
3/2
no
no
no

–

–
–
–
11th
12th

CS Emelec are undefeated in 23 of their last 27 Serie A matches against Guayaquil City.


OFC

AS Vénus
Tiga Sport

383032
11–0
1 – 0
1.78
25°
–

–
–
–



Gt2

CSD Sacachispas
Deportivo Mictlán

332245
20–1
0 – 1
2.00
33°
11/5

6/5
21/10
11/5
no
no
no

–

–
–
–
1st
2nd

Deportivo Mictlán are undefeated in their last 8 matches against CSD Sacachispas in the Primera Division.





LC

Nashville SC
Atlético San Luis

552322
13–0
3 – 0
3.01
33°
3/5

3/5
3/1
7/2
no
no
no

–

–
–
–
15th
10th

Atlético San Luis have scored at least two goals in each of their last 3 away Leagues Cup matches.


LC

Chicago Fire
Santos Laguna

591922
13–0
3 – 0
2.73
26°
9/20

9/20
33/10
9/2
no
no
no

–

–
–
–
6th
12th

Santos Laguna have lost 3 matches in a row in the Leagues Cup.


Ni1

Matagalpa FC
Managua FC

211267
21–3
1 – 3
3.45
3/5

7/2
11/4
3/5
no
no
no

–

–
–
–
10th
2nd

Matagalpa FC’s last 5 home matches against Managua FC in Primera Division have all featured over 2.5 goals.


Gt2

Huehuetecos
Cotzumalguapa

323730
X1–1
1 – 1
1.34
14°
3/1

2/5
3/1
21/4
no
no
no

–

–
–
–
4th
2nd

Cotzumalguapa have failed to win in 20 of their last 22 away matches in the Primera Division.


LC

Austin FC
Puebla FC

213049
21–2
1 – 2
2.78
36°
29/10

3/4
27/10
29/10
no
no
no

–

–
–
–
9th
16th


Co1

América de Cali
Atlético Nacional

412237
12–1
2 – 1
3.01
16°
5/4

5/4
11/5
11/5
no
no
no

–

–
–
–
4th
1st

América de Cali are undefeated in 24 of their last 25 Primera A home matches.


Hn1

Atlético Independiente
Atlético Choloma

423226
12–0
2 – 0
1.63
17°
17/20

17/20
12/5
9/4
no
no
no

–

–
–
–
8th
9th

Atlético Choloma have failed to win in 17 of their last 20 away Liga Nacional matches.


LC

San Diego
Club Tijuana

291754
21–2
1 – 2
3.13
26°
7/2

3/5
16/5
7/2
no
no
no

–

–
–
–
16th
11th

Club Tijuana have seen over 2.5 goals in each of their last 3 away Leagues Cup matches.


LC

Club América
Portland Timbers

423721
13–1
3 – 1
2.74
28°
11/10

11/10
12/5
2/1
no
no
no

–

–
–
–
3rd
4th

Portland Timbers have won the first half in each of their last 3 Leagues Cup matches.


OFC

Central Coast
Auckland City

233938
X2–2
2 – 2
3.03
25°
–

–
–
–



Ua1

Polissya Zhy
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv

244234
X1–1
1 – 1
1.89
27°
9/4

19/20
9/4
12/5
no
no
no

–

–
–
–
5th
6th

Polissya Zhy are unbeaten at half time in all of their last 16 Premier League matches.





Am2

Andranik
Shirak-2

74188
13–0
3 – 0
3.70
13°
–

–
–
–


2nd
11th

Andranik have won each of their last 3 First League matches by at least 3 goals.


Am2

Mika Yerevan
Pyunik-2

192952
20–1
0 – 1
2.47
21°
–

–
–
–


4th
5th

Pyunik-2 have kept three consecutive clean sheets in all three First League matches.


By2

Gomel II
Shakhtyor Soligorsk

224335
X1–1
1 – 1
2.13
27°
–

–
–
–


15th
7th

Gomel II have lost their last 3 matches in a row in the Pershaya Liga.


By2

FK Minsk-2
Ostrovets FC

343630
X1–1
1 – 1
2.40
24°
–

–
–
–


11th
14th

Ostrovets FC have drawn at halftime in five consecutive away matches in the Pershaya Liga.


Bg2

PFK Nesebar
Dobrudzha

152362
20–1
0 – 1
1.15
23°
–

–
–
–


17th
5th

Dobrudzha are undefeated in 7 of their last 8 Vtora Liga matches against PFK Nesebar.


Ua1

Karpaty Lviv
LNZ Cherkasy

234829
X0–0
0 – 0
2.10
29°
37/20

17/10
37/20
29/20
no
no
no

–

–
–
–
2nd
9th

LNZ Cherkasy have seen under 2.5 goals in each of their last 5 Premier League away matches.


By2

FK Orsha
FC Molodechno

262450
21–2
1 – 2
2.61
23°
–

–
–
–


12th
9th

FC Molodechno have kept a clean sheet in each of their last 3 matches against FK Orsha in the Pershaya Liga.


By2

FK Volna Pinsk
Uni Minsk

342640
21–2
1 – 2
3.33
28°
–

–
–
–


6th
13th

FK Volna Pinsk have scored at least two goals in each of their last 4 Pershaya Liga home matches.


By2

FK Smorgon
BATE II

394714
X1–1
1 – 1
2.10
23°
–

–
–
–


16th
17th

BATE II have lost their last 3 Pershaya Liga away matches by at least a 2-goal margin.


Sk2

MŠK Považská Bystrica
Zlate Moravce

194437
X2–2
2 – 2
3.49
30°
12/5

23/20
12/5
37/20
no
no
no

–

–
–
–
8th
6th

MŠK Považská Bystrica remain undefeated in 6 of their last 7 2. Liga matches.


Am2

Urartu-2
Noah II

444016
12–1
2 – 1
2.75
32°
–

–
–
–


13th
10th

Urartu-2 are undefeated in their last 6 First League matches against Noah II.


Ro1

FC Botosani
Corvinul Hunedoara

343729
X1–1
1 – 1
1.00
29°
21/10

11/10
21/10
21/10
no
no
no

–

–
–
–
14th
9th

FC Botosani have seen under 2.5 goals in each of their last 3 home Divizia A matches.


Lt1

Transinvest
Panevezys

513514
11–0
1 – 0
2.33
23°
3/5

3/5
27/10
33/10
no
no
no

–

–
–
–
2nd
8th

Panevezys have lost both at half time and full time in each of their last 5 A Lyga away matches.


Bg1

Botev Vratsa
Slavia Sofia

334819
X0–0
0 – 0
1.94
34°
9/4

19/20
9/4
3/1
no
no
no

–

–
–
–
11th
9th

Botev Vratsa are undefeated in their last 6 home Parva Liga matches.


Si1

ND Mura
NK Radomlje

463321
12–1
2 – 1
2.61
36°
17/20

17/20
13/5
12/5
no
no
no

–

–
–
–
7th
10th

NK Radomlje’s last 5 Prva Liga away matches have all featured over 2.5 goals.


Am1

Alashkert
BKMA Yerevan

484012
13–0
3 – 0
2.68
33°
–

–
–
–


3rd
7th

Alashkert have kept 3 clean sheets in a row in all Premier League matches.

More

 

Weekend tips

Weekend Half-Time Tips Weekend Football Weekend Over/Under 2.5
Weekend HT/FT Weekend Double Chance Weekend Asian Handicap
Weekend Both Teams To Score Weekend 1X2 Weekend Goalscorer Tips

What the bet covers

Only the 90 minutes plus added time count. A cup tie that goes to extra time is an X for this bet. Postponed matches are normally void. If you want to cover the draw as well as one team, double chance does that, and our page on it explains the settlement.

Draws are predictable in a general way

One match in four ends level, and the share isn’t random. Two things push it up.

Evenly matched teams. Where the closing prices for the home and away wins were within 5 points of each other, 29.7% of matches were drawn. Where the gap was 45 points or more, only 17.0% were.

Few expected goals. Where the closing over 2.5 chance was below 35%, 32.5% of matches were drawn. Where it was above 66%, only 14.4%.

Put both together, a tight match with low scoring, and the draw rate was 32.9% across 2,287 matches. A mismatch with lots of goals expected was 16.6%.

Which scores are draws

The draw has four common scorelines. Of all drawn matches, 46.9% were 1-1, 27.7% 0-0, 20.9% 2-2 and 4.0% 3-3. So a draw is mostly a low-scoring game: three in four are 1-1 or 0-0.

Draw runs don’t mean much

People like to say a team is “due” a draw. The numbers don’t back that up. When both teams had drawn their previous match, the draw rate was 26.7%. When neither had, it was 25.9%.

Looking further back made no real difference either. Matches where neither side had a draw in its last five games were drawn 25.1% of the time, and those with five or more between them 27.1%.

What is real is that some teams draw more than others. Among 215 teams with at least 150 matches, the draw rate ranged from 11.8% to 38.8%.

Brescia and Bari drew 38.8% of their matches, Zaragoza 36.2% and Genoa 34.9%. At the bottom, PSV drew 11.8%, Celtic 12.6%, Porto 13.5%, Barcelona 13.7% and Galatasaray 14.8%.

The spread among the 215 teams was 4.75 percentage points. Chance alone would produce about 3.25, so team habits are real, though the effect is smaller than the extremes suggest.

Promoted teams

Newly promoted sides are priced fairly. Across 207 team-seasons (7,686 matches), they won 25.2%, drew 25.4% and lost 49.4%. The odds implied a win rate of 26.0%, so the bookmakers were, if anything, slightly generous to them.

The home and away split is wide. At home they won 32.3% (priced at 32.5%). Away they won 18.1% (priced at 19.5%). On average they earned 1.01 points a game. 37.7% finished in the bottom three, and 15.0% finished in the top half.

Reading tomorrow’s list with the draw in mind

Go down the list and sort the matches into two piles. The first holds matches between sides of similar strength in leagues that don’t score much, the Italian second division being the extreme case at 32.0% draws. The second holds matches with a clear favourite in a high-scoring league like the Bundesliga, where fewer than one match in four ends level.

Don’t expect to name the drawn matches. Even in the first pile, two matches in three are decided. The point is to stop treating every X as a surprise, and to notice when a list has several tight, low-scoring games that could easily end 1-1.

Five rules for 1X2 tips

  1. Look for the draw first. If the gap between the teams is small and few goals are expected, expect a draw in about a third of matches like it.
  2. Don’t chase “due” draws. Previous results don’t predict the next one.
  3. Know the teams that draw. A side that draws 35% of its matches is a different bet from one that draws 12%.
  4. Treat promoted teams carefully away from home. They win only 18.1% of away matches.
  5. Check the team news before kick-off. The tips you see in the morning can’t know what happens later.

Common mistakes

The first is dismissing the draw as the boring outcome. One match in four isn’t rare, and 1-1 is the single most common score.

The second is treating a promoted team as certain to fail. 15% finished in the top half.

The third is combining many 1X2 picks. One draw ruins the whole slip.

Questions people ask

How often is a match drawn? 26.2% across our data.

Which league has the most draws? Serie B, at 32.0%.

What’s the most common draw score? 1-1, at 46.9% of draws.

Do draws come in streaks? No. Past results don’t change the chance.

Do promoted teams usually go down? 37.7% finish in the bottom three.

What if a match is postponed? The bet is normally void.

Where are today’s and the weekend’s tips? On the today page and the weekend page.

Tips are estimates and not promises. You must be 18 or over to bet, and a stake should be money you can afford to lose.