Europa League Predictions: Penalties and Drawn First Legs

Almost one Europa League tie in ten (8 of 87) was settled on penalties between 2021/22 and 2024/25, against 5 of 86 in the Champions League. A third of first legs (32.2%) finished level, compared with 19.8% in the Champions League, and the tighter contests change how a first leg should be read.

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3rd Qualifying Round

UEL

Saburtalo
Larne

334027
X0–0
0 – 0
1.33
31°
9/4

7/10
9/4
4/1
down
down
up

AET
FT
2 – 1

1 – 1(0 – 0)

0.14

UEL

CS Univ Craiova
KuPS Kuopio

353926
X1–1
1 – 1
2.40
31°
29/10

2/5
29/10
13/2
down
up
up

PREVIEW

0.18

UEL

Omonia Nicosia
Lincoln Red Imps

473023
11–0
1 – 0
2.46
35°
1/10

1/10
7/1
16/1
down
up
up

PREVIEW


UEL

Gornik Zabrze
Ferencvaros

461836
11–0
1 – 0
2.01
25°
21/20

21/20
11/5
12/5
up
down
down

PREVIEW


UEL

Pafos
RB Salzburg

323335
20–1
0 – 1
2.16
31°
5/4

37/20
9/4
5/4
up
down
down

PREVIEW


UEL

Besiktas
Hradec Kralove

393328
11–0
1 – 0
1.78
29°
3/10

3/10
4/1
13/2
down
up
up

PREVIEW


UEL

Vikingur Reykjavik
FC Thun

303337
21–2
1 – 2
2.99
14°
8/5

6/5
11/4
8/5
up
down
down

PREVIEW


UEL

Klaksvik
Lech Poznan

272350
20–1
0 – 1
1.97
12°
1/2

15/4
7/2
1/2
up
up
down

PREVIEW


UEL

CSKA-Sofia
Maccabi Tel Aviv

403921
12–1
2 – 1
2.88
32°
5/4

5/4
21/10
2/1
down
down
up

PREVIEW


UEL

Anderlecht
PAOK

592021
11–0
1 – 0
2.39
36°
11/5

11/5
11/5
23/20
no
no
no

PREVIEW

0.4

UEL

Rangers
Jagiellonia

343234
12–1
2 – 1
2.69
23°
4/1

1/2
61/20
4/1
no
no
no

PREVIEW


UEL

Hearts
SL Benfica

193051
21–2
1 – 2
3.48
24°
2/5

21/4
16/5
2/5
no
no
no

PREVIEW


UEL

Egnatia Rrogozhine
Shamrock Rovers

273043
21–2
1 – 2
2.65
35°
9/4

21/20
9/4
9/4
no
no
no

PREVIEW

0.18
3rd Qualifying Round

UEL

Shamrock Rovers
Egnatia Rrogozhine

423028
13–1
3 – 1
2.61
23°
3/5

3/5
9/4
19/4
no
no
no

FT
3 – 1(1 – 1)

UEL

Larne
Saburtalo

333532
X1–1
1 – 1
1.50
15°
2/1

29/20
2/1
8/5
no
no
no

FT
0 – 0(0 – 0)
0.03

UEL

Ferencvaros
Gornik Zabrze

392338
12–0
2 – 0
2.44
39°
13/20

13/20
12/5
4/1
no
no
no

FT
1 – 0(0 – 0)

UEL

KuPS Kuopio
CS Univ Craiova

413326
11–0
1 – 0
2.33
16°
5/2

5/2
2/1
11/10
no
no
no

FT
1 – 1(0 – 1)
0.17

UEL

Jagiellonia
Rangers

323137
21–2
1 – 2
3.75
30°
27/20

7/4
21/10
27/20
up
down
down

FT
2 – 1(2 – 1)

UEL

Maccabi Tel Aviv
CSKA-Sofia

293932
X0–0
0 – 0
0.67
29°
21/10

17/20
21/10
3/1
no
no
no

FT
0 – 3(0 – 2)
0.1

UEL

Lech Poznan
Klaksvik

403228
12–1
2 – 1
3.41
31°
1/5

1/5
21/4
12/1
no
no
no

FT
1 – 0(0 – 0)

UEL

Hradec Kralove
Besiktas

333532
X2–2
2 – 2
2.56
30°
12/5

3/1
12/5
4/5
no
no
no

FT
0 – 1(0 – 0)
0.08

UEL

Lincoln Red Imps
Omonia Nicosia

302248
20–2
0 – 2
2.39
27°
1/2

17/4
29/10
1/2
no
no
no

FT
1 – 1(0 – 0)

UEL

RB Salzburg
Pafos

382735
12–0
2 – 0
2.10
28°
2/5

2/5
15/4
19/4
no
no
no

FT
1 – 0(0 – 0)

UEL

PAOK
Anderlecht

392734
12–0
2 – 0
2.33
37°
3/5

3/5
11/4
9/2
no
no
no

FT
0 – 1(0 – 1)

UEL

FC Thun
Vikingur Reykjavik

303238
21–4
1 – 4
3.92
25°
7/2

3/5
61/20
7/2
no
no
no

FT
3 – 0(2 – 0)
0.23

UEL

SL Benfica
Hearts

622216
13–0
3 – 0
2.61
29°
1/10

1/10
9/1
14/1
no
no
no

FT
6 – 1(3 – 0)

More Predictions

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Drawn first legs

After the first leg Ties Went through
Home side won 39 First-leg winner 66.7%
Away side won 20 First-leg winner 95.0%
Drawn 28 Second-leg host 57.1%

Of the 28 ties with a drawn first leg, the second-leg host went through in 16. In the Champions League the equivalent figure was 12 in 17 (70.6%). The gaps between Europa League sides are probably smaller, so the second-leg host is less often a clearly stronger team.

An away win in the first leg was almost conclusive here too: 19 of 20 winners progressed. Away winners were rarer than in the Champions League, though, at 23.0% of first legs against 38.4%.

Margins

First-leg margin Ties First-leg winner went through
1 goal 30 56.7%
2 goals 17 94.1%
3 goals or more 12 100.0%

A one-goal lead held only 56.7% of the time, noticeably worse than the 66.7% in the Champions League. Fourteen sides came back from a first-leg defeat to progress, out of 59 ties with a first-leg winner, so about one in four comebacks succeeded.

Penalties

Season Round Winner on penalties
2021/22 Play-off Braga (v Sheriff)
2022/23 Play-off Shakhtar Donetsk (v Rennes)
2022/23 Play-off Bayer Leverkusen (v Monaco)
2022/23 Round of 16 Sporting CP (v Arsenal)
2023/24 Play-off Roma (v Feyenoord)
2023/24 Quarter-final Marseille (v Benfica)
2024/25 Round of 16 Rangers (v Fenerbahçe)
2024/25 Quarter-final Bodø/Glimt (v Lazio)

Eight of the 87 ties went to a shootout, 9.2%. Half of them were in the play-off round, which until 2023/24 paired teams dropping in from the Champions League with Europa League group runners-up.

Goals

First legs averaged 2.77 goals and second legs 3.22. Second-leg hosts won 52.9% of their matches, drew 20.7% and lost 26.4%, a somewhat better record than first-leg hosts, who won 44.8%.

For Europa League tips

Treat a single-goal lead at the first leg as less secure than in the Champions League, and a drawn first leg as only a modest advantage for whoever hosts the second. Two goals or more, or a win on the road, is where the first leg becomes close to decisive.

Europa League bets are for over-18s, and stakes should come from money you can lose.