An Asian handicap gives one team a head start so that the match is closer to an even contest. A team at -1 starts the match a goal behind. A team at +1 starts a goal ahead. You bet on which side wins once the head start is added to the final score. The big attraction is that most lines remove the draw, and many can be refunded.
The table below carries today’s handicap tips from an outside prediction provider, shown as published. Under it we show how every common line settles, how often each one has won, lost or been refunded across 14,607 matches, and what changes a line during a match.
Other tips for today
AuC
Brisbane Roar
Sydney FC
HT
Tomorrow’s tips
How the lines settle
Handicaps are written from the home team’s point of view. A line of -1 on the home side means it must win by two goals or more. Here’s how the common ones work.
0 (draw no bet). If your team wins, you win. If the match is drawn, you get your stake back. If it loses, you lose.
-0.5. The team has to win outright. A draw loses. There’s never a refund on a half line.
-1. A win by two or more wins. A win by exactly one goal returns your stake. A draw or loss loses.
-0.25 and -0.75 (quarter lines). Your stake is split in two. At -0.25, half goes on 0 and half on -0.5. A win wins everything, a draw refunds half and loses half, and a loss loses everything. At -0.75, half goes on -0.5 and half on -1. A win by one goal wins half and refunds half. A win by two or more wins everything, and anything else loses.
+0.25. The mirror image. A draw wins half and refunds half, a win for the team wins everything, and a loss loses everything.
If you’re confused by a line, work out which score would exactly return your stake. That tells you where the bet changes from winning to losing.
The lines that appear most
Across 14,607 matches with a handicap line, these were the most common:
| Home line | Share of matches |
|---|---|
| -0.25 | 19.9% |
| -0.5 | 15.5% |
| 0 | 14.6% |
| +0.25 | 10.6% |
| -0.75 | 10.4% |
In 61.3% of matches the home team was the favourite, which means a negative line. Half-goal and quarter lines are the norm, and whole-number lines are less common.
What happened on each line
| Home line | Matches | Home bet won | Lost | Refunded |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 359 | 45.1% | 54.9% | 0% |
| -1 | 826 | 34.6% | 37.7% | 27.7% |
| -0.75 | 1,513 | 44.0% | 41.8% | 14.2% |
| -0.5 | 2,261 | 47.6% | 52.4% | 0% |
| -0.25 | 2,910 | 42.9% | 42.4% | 14.7% |
| 0 | 2,132 | 33.9% | 36.3% | 29.9% |
The notable result is how even they are. Bookmakers set the line so that both sides have about the same chance, and the figures show it. On half lines, the home side won 47.6% at -0.5 and 45.1% at -1.5. On whole lines, nearly three matches in ten were refunded, which is the main benefit of choosing a line like 0 or -1. Across all lines, 14.2% of bets were refunded.
What changes a line
Red cards. When the home side was the only one sent off, it beat the line in only 26.5% of matches. When the away side was sent off, the home side beat the line in 61.8%. Without a red card it was 45.8%. A red card is worth about three quarters of a goal on the final margin.
Line movement. In 63.0% of matches the line didn’t move between opening and close. When it moved toward the home side, the home side beat the opening line only 40.6% of the time but the closing line 47.5% of the time. The line moved because information arrived, and the closing line was the better guide. Its average error was 1.2053 goals against 1.2109 for the opening line, a small gain.
Five rules for handicap tips
- Know exactly what a line pays. Work out the score that refunds you before you place anything.
- Prefer lines with refunds if you’re cautious. Whole-number lines refunded 27.7% to 29.9% of the time.
- Don’t expect favourites to cover. At -0.5 the home side won only 47.6% of bets, and at -1.5 only 45.1%.
- Check team news for red-card risk. Cards swing the margin by three quarters of a goal.
- Don’t chase half-wins. A quarter line pays part of a win and loses part of a loss, which changes your return more than your chance.
Common mistakes
The first is backing a big favourite on a big line. A team can win 2-1, 3-1 or 1-0 and still fail to cover -1.5.
The second is mixing up the sign. A plus sign gives the team a head start, and a minus sign takes one away.
The third is treating a refund as a win. A refunded bet earns nothing, and it can happen in 14% of your bets.
Questions people ask
What does Asian handicap mean? A bet where one team starts with a goal advantage or deficit, so the match is close to even.
What does -0.5 mean? The team must win. A draw loses.
What does +0.5 mean? The team wins the bet if it wins or draws.
What’s the difference between Asian handicap and European handicap? European handicap has three outcomes, including a draw after the head start. Asian handicap removes the draw, either through a refund or through a half line.
Is Asian handicap safer than 1X2? It removes one outcome, but the prices adjust, so the chance of winning isn’t much higher.
What is a quarter line? A line that splits your stake across two neighbouring lines, such as -0.25 across 0 and -0.5.
Where are tomorrow’s and the weekend’s tips? On the tomorrow page and the weekend page.
Tips are estimates and not promises. You must be 18 or over to bet, and a stake should be money you can lose without trouble.