J1 League: Small Home Edge and a 2022 Draw Spike

The J1 League is Japan’s top division. Its matches are played in a different time zone from most of the tips you’ll see, and in the last few years its calendar has changed. It’s also a league where the home edge is smaller than in Europe, goals are modest and draws appear in streaks. The table below holds the league’s tips from an outside prediction provider, shown as published.

The figures use 1,856 matches since the start of 2021, from public results files. They cover goals and results, not corners or cards.

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J1 League – Round 2, Regular Season

Jp1

Tokyo Verdy
Kashiwa Reysol

262351
21–2
1 – 2
3.10
27°
4/5

7/2
9/4
4/5
no
no
no

PREVIEW


Jp1

Mito HollyHock
Gamba Osaka

142562
20–3
0 – 3
2.63
27°
3/2

7/4
11/5
3/2
no
no
no

PREVIEW

0.37

Jp1

Kashima Antlers
Nagoya Grampus

701811
12–1
2 – 1
2.61
30°
7/10

7/10
13/5
7/2
no
no
no

PREVIEW

0.29

Jp1

Shimizu S-Pulse
Yokohama Marinos

423226
12–1
2 – 1
2.80
20°
29/20

29/20
21/10
7/4
no
no
no

PREVIEW

0.02

Jp1

Fagiano Okayama
V-Varen Nagasaki

252748
20–1
0 – 1
2.37
28°
9/4

23/20
11/5
9/4
no
no
no

PREVIEW

0.25

Jp1

Avispa Fukuoka
Cerezo Osaka

152560
20–3
0 – 3
2.72
29°
8/5

8/5
21/10
8/5
no
no
no

PREVIEW

0.35

Jp1

Vissel Kobe
FC Tokyo

522523
11–0
1 – 0
2.40
27°
5/4

5/4
21/10
21/10
no
no
no

PREVIEW

0.14

Jp1

Kawasaki Frontale
Kyoto Sanga

512721
12–1
2 – 1
2.78
27°
23/20

23/20
9/4
11/5
no
no
no

PREVIEW

0.08

Jp1

JEF United Chiba
Machida Zelvia

142067
21–2
1 – 2
2.77
28°
1/1

27/10
11/5
1/1
no
no
no

PREVIEW

0.34

Jp1

Urawa Red Diamonds
Sanfrecce

242154
21–2
1 – 2
2.67
28°
17/20

11/4
12/5
17/20
no
no
no

PREVIEW

0.03
J2 League – Round 2, Regular Season

Jp2

Tochigi Uva
Vanraure Hachinohe

131769
20–1
0 – 1
1.08
25°
–

–
–
–



Jp2

Blaublitz Akita
Kataller Toyama

513118
12–0
2 – 0
2.31
27°
–

–
–
–



Jp2

Fujieda MYFC
Iwaki FC

203643
22–3
2 – 3
2.88
26°
–

–
–
–



Jp2

FC Imabari
Omiya Ardija

183943
21–2
1 – 2
2.88
26°
–

–
–
–



Jp2

Albirex Niigata
Consadole Sapporo

252451
21–2
1 – 2
2.71
28°
–

–
–
–



Jp2

Ventforet Kofu
Tegevajaro Miyazaki

333037
21–2
1 – 2
2.58
23°
–

–
–
–



Jp2

Shonan Bellmare
Montedio Yamagata

232651
21–2
1 – 2
2.58
27°
–

–
–
–



Jp2

Vegalta Sendai
Oita Trinita

493417
11–0
1 – 0
2.29
28°
–

–
–
–



Jp2

Yokohama FC
Jubilo Iwata

225919
X1–1
1 – 1
2.40
24°
–

–
–
–



Jp2

Tokushima Vortis
Sagan Tosu

202555
20–1
0 – 1
2.31
29°
–

–
–
–


J3 League – Round 2, Regular Season

Jp3

Giravanz K.
Kamatamare Sanuki

292844
20–2
0 – 2
2.44
28°
–

–
–
–



Jp3

FC Gifu
Kochi United SC

364915
X1–1
1 – 1
2.20
26°
–

–
–
–



Jp3

Roasso Kumamoto
Tochigi SC

223148
20–2
0 – 2
2.10
26°
–

–
–
–



Jp3

Renofa Yamaguchi
Ryukyu

404119
X2–2
2 – 2
3.03
23°
–

–
–
–



Jp3

Zweigen Kanazawa
Fukushima United

483220
12–1
2 – 1
2.81
25°
–

–
–
–



Jp3

Thespakusatsu
Sagamihara

225919
X1–1
1 – 1
2.30
23°
–

–
–
–



Jp3

Nara Club
Kagoshima United

213149
20–1
0 – 1
1.97
25°
–

–
–
–



Jp3

FC Osaka
Nagano Parceiro

402832
11–0
1 – 0
2.11
28°
–

–
–
–



Jp3

Ehime FC
Gainare Tottori

43497
X4–4
4 – 4
3.18
26°
–

–
–
–



Jp3

Matsumoto Yamaga
MIO Biwako Kusatsu

582814
13–1
3 – 1
3.33
20°
–

–
–
–


Football League – Round 31, Final

Jp4

Suzuka Unlimited
VONDS Ichihara

353234
12–0
2 – 0
1.75
15°
4/5

4/5
11/5
17/5
no
no
no

FT
0 – 0(0 – 0)
J-League Cup – Final

JpC

Kashiwa Reysol
Sanfrecce

363925
X1–1
1 – 1
2.03
21°
9/4

37/20
9/4
29/20
no
no
no

FT
1 – 3(0 – 3)
0.12
Emperor Cup – Final

JpC

Machida Zelvia
Vissel Kobe

254431
X1–1
1 – 1
1.48
16°
–

–
–
–


FT
3 – 1(2 – 0)
Super Cup

JpC

Vissel Kobe
Sanfrecce

202951
20–1
0 – 1
2.25
4°
8/5

17/10
9/4
8/5
no
no
no

FT
0 – 2(0 – 1)
0.2
Nadeshiko League Women – Round 16

JpW2

Yokohama W
NGU Lublield Nagoya W

171865
21–3
1 – 3
3.32
24°
–

–
–
–


Postp.


JpW2

Shizuoka Sangyo Univ. W
Ehime W

512624
13–2
3 – 2
2.89
23°
–

–
–
–



JpW2

Setagaya Sfida W
Iga Kunoichi W

224038
X1–1
1 – 1
2.41
26°
–

–
–
–



JpW2

Viamaterras Miyazaki W
Harima W

442630
12–1
2 – 1
2.67
31°
–

–
–
–



JpW2

Yunogo Belle W
Kamogawa W

214830
X1–1
1 – 1
2.00
20°
–

–
–
–



JpW2

VONDS Ichihara W
Nittaidai W

372142
21–3
1 – 3
3.17
25°
–

–
–
–


Postp.

WE League – Round 22

JpW

INAC Kobe Leonessa W
Sanfrecce Hiroshima W

274232
X2–2
2 – 2
2.63
20°
7/2

15/4
7/2
1/2
no
no
no

FT
0 – 1(0 – 0)
0.25

JpW

JEF United W
Urawa Reds W

211861
20–2
0 – 2
2.44
22°
1/2

15/4
7/2
1/2
no
no
no

FT
1 – 0(0 – 0)

JpW

NTV Beleza W
Albirex Niigata W

403525
12–0
2 – 0
2.36
22°
15/4

15/4
7/2
1/2
no
no
no

FT
2 – 1(0 – 0)
0.24

JpW

Omiya Ardija Ventus W
Nojima Stella W

353827
X1–1
1 – 1
1.71
23°
7/2

15/4
7/2
1/2
no
no
no

FT
0 – 4(0 – 2)
0.2

JpW

Vegalta Sendai W
Elfen Saitama W

572221
12–1
2 – 1
2.64
22°
15/4

15/4
7/2
1/2
no
no
no

FT
2 – 3(0 – 0)
0.46

JpW

Cerezo Osaka W
Parceiro Nagano W

462826
13–1
3 – 1
3.23
26°
15/4

15/4
7/2
1/2
no
no
no

FT
1 – 1(0 – 1)
0.32
Nadeshiko League 2 – Round 17

JpW3

Fujizakura Yamanashi W
Diavorosso Hiroshima W

323534
X0–0
0 – 0
1.81
25°
–

–
–
–


Postp.


JpW3

Bunnies Gunma White Star W
SEISA OSA Rheia W

462627
12–1
2 – 1
2.50
25°
–

–
–
–


Postp.


JpW3

Yamato Sylphid W
Nankatsu W

252649
21–2
1 – 2
2.75
24°
–

–
–
–


Postp.


JpW3

Renofa Yamaguchi W
JFA Academy W

592219
11–0
1 – 0
1.50
22°
–

–
–
–


Postp.


JpW3

Diosa Izumo W
Speranza W

213446
20–1
0 – 1
1.83
21°
–

–
–
–



JpW3

Veertien Mie W
Kibi Univ. Takahashi W

113257
20–2
0 – 2
1.78
32°
–

–
–
–


J2/J3 League – Round 20, 3rd Place

Jp3

Tegevajaro Miyazaki
Ventforet Kofu

383230
11–0
1 – 0
0.75
23°
17/20

17/20
9/4
11/4
no
no
no

FT
2 – 1(0 – 0)

Jp3

Vegalta Sendai
Kataller Toyama

412237
12–1
2 – 1
2.64
14°
7/5

7/5
21/10
17/10
no
no
no

Pen.
FT
4 – 2

1 – 1(1 – 0)


Jp3

Omiya Ardija
Kochi United SC

412831
11–0
1 – 0
1.33
22°
7/10

7/10
13/5
16/5
no
no
no

FT
2 – 1(0 – 0)

Jp3

Fujieda MYFC
Ehime FC

412237
11–0
1 – 0
2.17
21°
8/5

8/5
11/5
27/20
no
no
no

FT
1 – 0(1 – 0)
0.05

Jp3

Albirex Niigata
Consadole Sapporo

402832
12–0
2 – 0
2.38
19°
31/20

31/20
21/10
3/2
no
no
no

Pen.
FT
5 – 4

0 – 0(0 – 0)


Jp3

Jubilo Iwata
FC Osaka

423424
12–1
2 – 1
3.25
23°
3/2

3/2
7/4
7/4
no
no
no

Pen.
FT
4 – 5

1 – 1(0 – 0)

0.05

Jp3

Sagan Tosu
Shonan Bellmare

352936
21–2
1 – 2
2.88
27°
21/10

11/10
11/5
21/10
no
no
no

FT
1 – 0(0 – 0)
0.09

Jp3

Vanraure Hachinohe
FC Imabari

312939
20–1
0 – 1
1.73
15°
–

–
–
–


Pen.
FT
3 – 5

1 – 1(0 – 1)


Jp3

Zweigen Kanazawa
Thespakusatsu

382933
12–1
2 – 1
2.59
23°
19/20

19/20
9/4
12/5
no
no
no

FT
4 – 1(0 – 0)

Jp3

Tochigi SC
Giravanz K.

482625
11–0
1 – 0
2.00
22°
7/10

7/10
9/4
15/4
no
no
no

AET
FT
2 – 1

1 – 1(0 – 1)


Jp3

Oita Trinita
Montedio Yamagata

412237
12–0
2 – 0
2.31
20°
29/20

29/20
7/4
37/20
no
no
no

FT
1 – 0(0 – 0)
0.02

Jp3

Kamatamare Sanuki
Nagano Parceiro

343036
20–2
0 – 2
2.24
35°
3/2

7/4
7/4
3/2
no
no
no

Pen.
FT
3 – 5

0 – 0(0 – 0)


Jp3

Yokohama FC
Renofa Yamaguchi

403525
12–1
2 – 1
2.58
31°
7/10

7/10
5/2
16/5
no
no
no

FT
2 – 1(1 – 0)

Jp3

Tochigi Uva
MIO Biwako Kusatsu

382833
13–1
3 – 1
3.24
24°
3/4

3/4
13/5
11/4
no
no
no

FT
3 – 1(1 – 0)

Jp3

Sagamihara
Roasso Kumamoto

432135
12–0
2 – 0
2.13
19°
7/5

7/5
2/1
7/4
no
no
no

FT
3 – 0(1 – 0)
0.01

Jp3

Matsumoto Yamaga
Nara Club

422730
12–1
2 – 1
2.75
23°
7/10

7/10
13/5
16/5
no
no
no

FT
0 – 2(0 – 2)

Jp3

FC Gifu
Gainare Tottori

342145
21–3
1 – 3
3.42
22°
5/2

17/20
12/5
5/2
no
no
no

Pen.
FT
2 – 4

1 – 1(0 – 0)

0.18

Jp3

Tokushima Vortis
Iwaki FC

323829
X1–1
1 – 1
1.89
19°
2/1

17/10
2/1
29/20
no
no
no

FT
2 – 0(1 – 0)
0.07

Jp3

Fukushima United
Ryukyu

392635
12–1
2 – 1
2.93
12°
29/20

29/20
21/10
31/20
no
no
no

Pen.
FT
5 – 4

1 – 1(0 – 1)


Jp3

Blaublitz Akita
Kagoshima United

323533
X1–1
1 – 1
2.12
20°
11/5

31/20
11/5
29/20
no
no
no

FT
0 – 2(0 – 2)
0.05

More Predictions

Tomorrow's Goalscorer Tips Half-Time/Full-Time Tomorrow Tomorrow's Corner Tips
Both Teams To Score Tomorrow Asian Handicap Tomorrow Over/Under 2.5 Tomorrow
Football Tomorrow Double Chance Tomorrow Yellow Card Tips For Tomorrow

The league in numbers

Measure Japan Average of 18 European leagues
Goals a match 2.53 2.69
Over 2.5 goals 46.7% 50.7%
Both teams scored 49.9% 52.7%
Goalless draws 8.8% about 7%
Home win 41.4% 43.5%
Draw 26.6% 26.2%
Away win 32.0% 30.3%

Matches averaged 2.53 goals, and both teams scored in exactly half of them (49.9%). Over 2.5 landed in 46.7%. About one match in eleven ended 0-0.

A smaller home edge

Home teams won 41.4% of J1 matches and away teams 32.0%. The home side scored 1.37 goals a match and the visitors 1.16, a gap of 0.21. That’s smaller than in most leagues, and it shows in the covers. Home win or draw landed in 68.0% of matches. Away win or draw landed in 58.6%, one of the better away covers in the data.

By season, the home win rate ran 42.1%, 39.4%, 42.2%, 38.4%, 44.2% and then 44.0% so far in the new season. A rate of 38% to 44% in either direction is normal here.

The 2022 season

Draws usually run between 21% and 28% of matches. In 2022 they hit 32.3% across 310 matches, the highest of any season in our data, and the home win rate that year was 39.4%. It’s a good reminder that one season can look odd without any change in the underlying league. If you look at the year before and the year after, draws were 24.7% and 25.5%.

The calendar changed

In our data the J1 seasons from 2021 to 2025 each ran from February to December. The latest one started on 7 August 2026 and is labelled 2026/2027, with 100 matches played so far.

That season has 2.92 goals a match and only 21.0% draws. With 100 matches, it’s too early to say the league has changed.

For betting, the practical point is that older figures describe a spring-to-winter season, and the new one runs through autumn. Treat any seasonal numbers carefully.

Goals by season

From 2021 to 2025 the average was 2.43, 2.53, 2.54, 2.67 and 2.40 goals a match.

The 2024 season, at 2.67, was the highest and 2025, at 2.40, the lowest. They sit within about a quarter of a goal of each other, which is steadier than Finland or Denmark.

Scorelines

1-1 was the commonest score at 12.1%, followed by 1-0 (10.5%), 0-1 (10.1%), 2-1 (9.6%) and 0-0 (8.8%). Away wins by a goal are about as common as home wins by a goal: 0-1 at 10.1% against 1-0 at 10.5%.

How reliable are favourites?

Favourite’s chance at the price Matches Favourite won
Under 45% 993 36.3%
45% to 55% 563 53.1%
55% to 65% 242 66.9%
65% or more 58 67.2%

The middle bands did better than their prices suggest, with 55% to 65% favourites winning 66.9%. There are only 58 matches in the top band, so we wouldn’t put weight on it. The main finding is that J1 favourites aren’t dramatically unreliable.

When the matches are played

Saturday carries 51.8% of the league’s matches, Sunday 26.7% and Wednesday 12.4%. Dates are as listed in the results file.

Both teams scoring

BTTS landed in 49.9%. The home side scored in 73.1% of matches (100% minus the 26.9% it was blanked) and the visitors in 68.0%. Multiplying gives 49.7%, almost exactly the real figure.

Japan’s home side was blanked more often than in most leagues, in a bit more than one match in four. That’s part of why the BTTS rate sits under the European average.

Corners and cards

We don’t have corner or card figures for Japan. The results file has goals and prices only. If you bet on those lines, use the general rules on our corner and card pages and check the referee.

Five rules for Japanese tips

  1. Don’t expect many goals. Over 2.5 starts at 46.7%.
  2. Don’t assume a home win. 41.4% is below the European average.
  3. Watch for draw seasons. 2022 reached 32.3%.
  4. Use the away cover. X2 landed 58.6% of the time.
  5. Check the calendar. The latest season runs on a different schedule.

Common mistakes

The first is using a European goals line. Over 2.5 is a long shot for J1.

The second is treating a 1-0 away win as a surprise. It’s about as common as a 1-0 home win.

The third is reading one season as the league’s identity. The draw rate went from 25.5% to 32.3% and back.

Questions people ask

How many goals in a J1 match? 2.53 on average since 2021.

How often do both teams score? 49.9%.

Is there a big home advantage in Japan? No. 41.4% home wins.

How often is a match drawn? 26.6% of the time.

When does the season start now? The latest season in our data began in August 2026.

Where are other leagues? See China and the Asia page.

Tips are estimates, not promises. You must be 18 or over to bet, and a stake should be money you can afford to lose.