Penalties produced 9.4% of international goals in 2020 to 2026, up from 6.2% in the 1990s. Taking all matches with a goal since 2010, 22.4% included at least one penalty goal. For a goalscorer tip, the penalty-taker is a short route to a goal that no other player has.
Today’s tips
Tomorrow and the weekend
The rise of the penalty
| Period | Goals in the sample | Penalties | Own goals |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1990 to 1999 | 6,762 | 6.2% | 1.3% |
| 2000 to 2009 | 10,599 | 6.0% | 1.6% |
| 2010 to 2014 | 4,231 | 7.8% | 2.2% |
| 2015 to 2019 | 5,577 | 8.2% | 2.8% |
| 2020 to 2026 | 8,305 | 9.4% | 3.2% |
The sample is international matches for which scorer records exist and that had at least one goal. Penalties went from roughly one goal in sixteen to about one in ten across the period, and own goals more than doubled in share. The data can’t say why. More penalties awarded, better recording of the type of goal, and the introduction of video review in the late 2010s are all candidates.
Five World Cups
| Tournament | Goals | Penalties | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 145 | 9 | 6.2% |
| 2014 | 171 | 12 | 7.0% |
| 2018 | 169 | 22 | 13.0% |
| 2022 | 172 | 17 | 9.9% |
| 2026 | 308 | 16 | 5.2% |
The 2018 World Cup, the first with video review, produced 22 penalty goals, almost twice as many as 2014, and 13.0% of all goals. The 2026 tournament had far more goals overall (308, from 104 matches in the new 48-team format) but only 16 of them came from penalties, the lowest share of the five. Shootout kicks aren’t included in any of these counts.
When penalties are scored
Across 1,566 penalty goals since 2010, 21.2% came in the last stretch of the first half and 23.2% at the end of the second, the same two spots where goals in general bunch up when stoppage time is added. Only 10.8% came in the first 15 minutes, against 12.3% of goals overall.
In matches decided by a single goal, the winning team had scored a penalty in 13.8% of them. And in 434 team performances, a penalty was the team’s only goal of the match.
Who takes them
| Player | Penalty goals since 2010 |
|---|---|
| Harry Kane | 24 |
| Cristiano Ronaldo | 21 |
| Lionel Messi | 14 |
| Robert Lewandowski | 14 |
| Mile Jedinak | 11 |
| Memphis Depay | 11 |
| Kylian Mbappé | 11 |
| Christian Eriksen | 10 |
The list shows goals, not misses, because misses aren’t recorded in this file. Kane’s 24 is the highest total, ahead of Ronaldo’s 21.
For weekend scorer tips
A team’s designated taker has an extra route to a goal in any match where a penalty is likely. About one match in five with a goal includes one, so it adds something to an anytime pick and says little about a first-scorer pick.
A designated taker’s edge is a small one, and penalties get saved or missed. Anyone backing scorers should be 18 or older and use spare money only.